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Dec 052014
 

Technical Analysis of Silver Wheaton Corp. (ticker: SLW) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.

Silver Wheaton (SLW) is showing clear signs that it’ll be producing a 5-wave, non-overlapping Elliott Wave impulse to the upside from its November  11 low.  The 60-minute chart really tells the tale, as an almost unmistakeable wave 4 (pink) triangle is forming.  The charts speak for themselves.

Also significant is the fact that Sentient Trader software, which produces a full Hurst cycle analysis of any chart in just seconds, is labeling the early November low as an 18-month cycle trough.  This doesn’t mean that all miners have bottomed yet, but of the ones that haven’t, they are very likely to do so as SLW puts in its blue wave 2 (shown on the 60-minute chart) after 5-waves up are complete for blue wave 1.

Please join me for my weekly “Counts” webinar, where I spend a full 2.5 hours going over all of my Elliott Wave Counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stock markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst Cycle analysis is always considered.  A recording is made available to all subscribers afterwards, whether in attendance “live” or not.

SLW weekly 12 5 14 1024x527 Technical Analysis of Silver Wheaton Corp. (ticker: SLW) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

SLW daily 12 5 141 1024x527 Technical Analysis of Silver Wheaton Corp. (ticker: SLW) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

SLW 240m 12 5 14 1024x527 Technical Analysis of Silver Wheaton Corp. (ticker: SLW) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

SLW 60m 12 5 14 1024x527 Technical Analysis of Silver Wheaton Corp. (ticker: SLW) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

Once again, please join me for my weekly “Counts” webinar, where I spend a full 2.5 hours going over all of my Elliott Wave Counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stock markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds. Hurst Cycle analysis is always considered. A recording is made available to all subscribers afterwards, whether in attendance “live” or not.  For those looking for a “quick glance” service, featuring multi-timeframe screenshots of my projections for the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, Bonds (TLT), US$ (DX), and Euro (EUR/USD), see my EWP ScreenShots service.  EWP Screenshots subscribers receive access to screenshots on Sundays and again on Wednesdays.

Additionally, my subscription service associated with ElevenQuarterStocks.com is keenly interested in mining stocks at this time. All subscribers to that service receive access to a large number of individual stock charts labeled with my combination of Elliott and Hurst, as well as access to a recording of my most recent monthly Eleven-Quarter Stocks webinar, where I go over a large number of beaten down stocks, including many miners.

NEW!  I can now accept payment for annual subscriptions from money managers who want to utilize their accumulated broker “Soft Dollars“.  If you are a professional money manager with “Soft Dollars” available from your broker, and would like to use them to gain regular access to my work, contact me.  Thanks . .

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com
http://ElevenQuarterStocks.com

Oct 202014
 

Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA Gold & Precious Metals Ltd by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts to enlarge.

As I mentioned in my last post about precious metals and the Aussie/Dollar, ASA Gold & Precious Metals Ltd (ticker: ASA) has long been utilized as a proxy for the precious metals and miners sectors by market professionals. ASA is an investment trust, so it acts very much like a sector ETF. But ASA has existed for far longer than ETF’s, so there’s a nice long history of data to work with.

If one starts an Elliott Wave analysis of ASA in the early 1970′s, an expanding diagonal pattern appears to be underway. In an expanding diagonal, wave 3 must be longer than wave 1, wave 5 must be longer than wave 3, and wave 4 must be longer than wave 2. Additionally, wave 4 must overlap into the price territory of wave 1, and perhaps most importantly (for wave recognition purposes), each wave within an ending expanding diagonal must subdivide into a zigzag.

As you can see on the monthly chart below , all of those requirements are present in the proposed wave count. An updated Hurst Cycle Analysis (using Sentient Trader software) indicates that a large nest of cycle troughs (including the 20 & 40-week, and the very important 18-month cycle) is due between November 22 of this year and April 14 2015.

ASA monthly 10 20 14 1024x528 Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA Gold & Precious Metals Ltd by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

If the above Elliott Wave interpretation is correct, all that is left of the precious metals bear market is a Minute-degree (pink) wave 5 to the downside, as shown on the weekly chart below. In ASA, price must move down to $10.14 or below, because wave 4 (burgundy) of the decades-long expanding diagonal must be longer than wave 2 was. Once that occurs, all necessary subdivisions will be in place, and ASA, along with precious metals and miners should rally strongly for several years. Once Wave 5 of the expanding diagonal gets underway, it must end beyond the extreme of wave 3 (burgundy), which peaked in late 2010 at $36.13.

ASA weekly 10 20 14 1024x527 Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA Gold & Precious Metals Ltd by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

There are several Fibonacci price targets below $10.14 for the end of blue wave 5 (or alternate blue wave C). They range from $6.77 to $9.99, and are shown on the weekly chart above. I’ll be eying round number support at $10. ASA is $11.80 per share at the moment. By the way, ASA is one of several precious metals and mining sector stocks we are tracking for potential purchase within the Eleven-Quarter-System trading model portfolio.

Sid
ElliottWavePredictions.com
ElevenQuarterStocks.com

 Posted by at 2:27 pm
Sep 252014
 

Elliott Wave, Hurst Cycles and Fibonacci Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on each chart to enlarge.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down only 2.33% since the Friday September 19 all-time high, but Hurst cycle analysis is already suggesting that a major top is “in”. As I described in my last free post about the DJIA, I base all U.S. stock market cyclic conclusions on Sentient Trader Hurst Cycle analysis starting at the Y2K high, as I believe that to be the last significant turning point in the underlying “character” and “pace” of the U.S. stock market.

As of the close today (9/25/2014), an up-to-date Hurst analysis indicates that the 4.5-yr cycle crested in June, and the 18-month cycle crested in May. The 40-week cycle is due to crest on about October 23, but the 20-week cycle, 80-day, and 40-day cycles all crested within the last few days. So, of the six largest cycles that Sentient Trader software can deduce based on a 14-year price history (2000-2014), five are now pressuring price to the downside. This condition appears to be overwhelming the only remaining larger cycle yet to crest, the 40-week. We therefore are very likely to have seen a major top in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on September 19, in my opinion.

From an Elliott Wave standpoint, all of the required subdivisions of an ending contracting diagonal completed on September 19, which, in textbook fashion, concluded with a very slight throw-over of the upper diagonal trendline.

As for Fibonacci price targets, there were a number of significant, large degree targets from 16,690 to 17,455, as shown on the daily chart below. The September 19 top tick of 17,350.64 occurred inside that Fibonacci target cluster.

DJIA weekly 9 25 14 1024x526 Elliott Wave, Hurst Cycles and Fibonacci Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

DJIA daily 9 25 142 1024x528 Elliott Wave, Hurst Cycles and Fibonacci Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

DJIA 240m 9 25 14 1024x527 Elliott Wave, Hurst Cycles and Fibonacci Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

DJIA daily Hurst 9 25 14 1024x574 Elliott Wave, Hurst Cycles and Fibonacci Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

The last chart above is a screenshot of the Hurst Cycle Analysis, as performed by Sentient Trader software, after the close of the market today, September 25, 2014.

One last note: Just because the Dow Jones Industrial Average appears to have finished a terminal upside pattern does not mean that every U.S. and European stock index has put in their respective tops. And many of the Asian indices do not appear to have put in their highs for the year yet. For the complete picture, please join me for my weekend “Counts” webinar, where I show all of my Elliott wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’ major stock markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds. Hurst cycle analysis is always considered.

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com
http://ElevenQuarterStocks.com

Sep 252014
 

Elliott Wave and Associated Fibonacci Analysis of the AUD/USD Currency Pair (by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com).

The Aussie is nearing a area of strong support.

AUDUSD weekly 9 25 14 1024x526 Elliott Wave and Associated Fibonacci Analysis of the AUD/USD Currency Pair (by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com)

AUDUSD daily 9 25 14 1024x526 Elliott Wave and Associated Fibonacci Analysis of the AUD/USD Currency Pair (by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com)

AUDUSD 240m 9 25 145 1024x528 Elliott Wave and Associated Fibonacci Analysis of the AUD/USD Currency Pair (by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com)

Since Gold and the Aussie are often highly correlated, Gold could easily follow a similar roadmap. Often, the stock “ASA” can be used as a proxy for Gold. See the potential Elliott Wave count and associated Hurst cycle analysis on ASA below.

ASA weekly 9 25 14 1024x528 Elliott Wave and Associated Fibonacci Analysis of the AUD/USD Currency Pair (by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com)

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com
http://ElevenQuarterStocks.com

Sep 152014
 

Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis of Silver (XY futures contract), & the US Dollar (DX Index) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts to enlarge.

By utilizing a combination of Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle Analysis, I believe silver will put in a significant bottom in about 3 weeks.  As the daily chart below shows, there is a significant cluster of cycle troughs centered around October 8: those being the 40-week, 20-week, and 80-day cycles.  Also, all of those troughs fall within an 18-month cycle trough window.

Silver daily 9 15 14 1024x529 Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis of Silver (XY futures contract), & the US Dollar (DX Index) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

A bounce starting as early as October would fit nicely with both the main and alternate Elliott Wave counts, as shown on the weekly chart below. Either way, we should see a rally soon in precious metals that is likely to last at least into the second half of 2015.

Silver weekly 9 15 141 1024x527 Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis of Silver (XY futures contract), & the US Dollar (DX Index) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

So how could precious metals rally while the US Dollar is shooting to the moon? Well, by using the same combination of Elliott and Hurst, it appears that the current US$ rally may end at about the same time as precious metals bottom.  See the chart below for the main and alternate roadmaps for the US Dollar (DX Index).

US DX weekly 9 15 14 1024x526 Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis of Silver (XY futures contract), & the US Dollar (DX Index) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com
http://ElevenQuarterStocks.com

Sep 012014
 

With U.S. stocks in nose-bleed territory, many money managers are smartly on the lookout for investment alternatives.  The Hang Seng appears to be a decent intermediate-term option in my opinion.  By combining Hurst Cycle Analysis and Elliott Wave, I’ve developed the roadmap below.

HangSeng weekly 9 1 143 1024x527 Sids Technical Take on the Long Term Expectations for the Hang Seng Index ( HSIX / HKHI )

Since the October 2011 (Burgundy B) low, which, by the way, was the US stock market low since Y2K when priced in Gold, the Hang Seng Index has been moving to the upside, but in overlapping fashion.  Both the upside and downside waves have been built in “threes”.  Because Hurst cycle analysis (using Sentient Trader software) isn’t expecting a crest of the 42.4-week cycle until around late November of this year, the Hang Seng looks like a decent bet for upside continuation until then.  My Elliott Wave interpretation for the Hang Seng is therefore that of an ending contracting diagonal, which, if correct, will have the Hang Seng rallying from now until late November, reaching a temporary, black wave 3 top at about 26842, where blue wave C will equal blue wave A times 1.382.

At that point though, watch out for a quick drop (in 3 waves) during late Q4-2014, and Q1-2015 to just about 23750.  That should create another nice buying opportunity, as the 5th wave of the ending diagonal would need a final 3-wave rally lasting all the way into early-to-mid 2016, with a final target of 30145, where primary wave C (burgundy) will equal the length of primary wave A.  Notice that the 30145 target would allow the Hang Seng to retrace the 2008 crash by slightly more than 90%, a requirement of wave B of a “flat”.

Then, (post mid-2016), if this interpretation is correct, the Hang Seng should essentially crash, as ending diagonals are typically deeply and quickly retraced.

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

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