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Highlights from Sid’s March 20, 2016 “Counts” Webinar, featuring long-term Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average

 Dow Jones Industrial Average  Comments Off on Highlights from Sid’s March 20, 2016 “Counts” Webinar, featuring long-term Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
Mar 242016
 

The video clip below is the first 15 minutes from Sid’s March 20, 2016 “Counts” Webinar.  The primary topic is the long-term Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  Included is a discussion of the proper placement of the most recent 54-year Kondratieff cycle trough, and how a combined Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle analysis looks moving forward, if the last 54-year K-wave trough occurred in 1982.  Click on the graphic below to play the video . .

DJIA Hurst starting 1980 thumbnail

Does you current subscription service show detail on multiple timeframe charts? Does is show a main and an alternate, invalidation points for both, and the most likely Fibonacci targets? Does it also consider Hurst cycle analysis, projecting date ranges for coming projected peaks and troughs on multiple timeframes? If not, please give my services a serious look. I’ve said it before, and I’ll continue to say it: I’m finding that the combination of Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle analysis is more powerful than the individual methodologies in isolation.

Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterward, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service provides updated multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepredictions.com

Combined Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle Analysis of the Nasdaq (NQ Futures Contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 Nasdaq, NQ Futures Contract, QQQ  Comments Off on Combined Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle Analysis of the Nasdaq (NQ Futures Contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Mar 112016
 

Combined Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle Analysis of the Nasdaq (NQ Futures Contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.

The NQ futures contract has been presenting very clear internal wave structures and Hurst cycle designations for past year and a half, and should be considered a proxy for wave counts and Hurst Cycle analysis in other US stock market indices, in my opinion.

NQ daily 3-11-16

Starting at the October 16, 2014 low, the upward movement into the July 20, 2015 high carved out a clear ending contracting diagonal.  I’m labeling that July 20 high as the end of blue (minor degree) wave 3 within black (intermediate) wave C of a burgundy (primary) wave Y within an upward double zigzag that started all the way back in at the October 2002 low.  Then, the strong downward move from July 20 into the August 24, 2015 low was in three waves, so I’ve labeled that low as the end of blue wave 4.  That was followed by an upward 5-wave impulse into the December 2, 2015 top.  I’ve labeled that top as the end of teal (cycle degree) wave B.

Then, from the December 2, 2015 all time high in the NQ, price moved down in a clear 5-wave impulse into the February 11 low.  Upward movement from that February 11 low started quite aggressively but appears to have lost momentum over the past week.  Importantly, the upward movement from the Feb 11 low appears to be forming a corrective, 3-wave (blue) ABC structure.

As for a Hurst Cycle analysis, we use an unaltered Sentient Trader nominal trough-based model on the continuous NQ contract starting at the March 2000 mania top.  This analysis has remained consistent for many months.  It labels the October 16, 2014 low is the last 18-month cycle trough, the August 24, 2015 low as the last 40-week cycle trough, and the February 11, 2016 low as a 20-week cycle trough.  Moving forward, and this is very important, there is an 18-month cycle trough still in front of us, due in mid-June of this year.  Is the stock market going to continue to climb as that 18-month cycle trough draws nearer and nearer.  Likely not.

So we currently have 5-waves down into from Dec 2 through Feb 11 followed by an ABC partial retracement, which is losing upward momentum with wave C (blue) currently shorter than wave A was.  Hmmm . .

Wave 2’s most commonly retrace between 50 and 61.8% of wave 1’s.  Also, price appears to have moved up into an 80-day cycle topping date window.  The resulting target zone for a top for wave 2 is shown on the chart by the gray oval.  The Sentient Trader “composite line” (CL) is suggesting that the NQ will top early in that window, which makes sense, as the longer cycles will theoretically provide gradually increasing downward pressure through mid-June.

Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterward, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service provides updated multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepredictions.com

Updated Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis of 30-year Treasury Bonds (ZB futures contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 T-Bonds 30yr, TLT, TNX, Treasury Bonds  Comments Off on Updated Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis of 30-year Treasury Bonds (ZB futures contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Mar 032016
 

Updated Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis of 30-year Treasury Bonds (ZB futures contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.  Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

It’s been a few weeks since I last posted, and as I pondered potential topics to cover, an updated analysis of Treasury Bonds once again presented itself as a logical option.  Treasuries appear to be nearing a very important large-degree trend change.  So here’s an updated analysis, based on the unique combination of Elliott Wave (and its associated Fibonacci price targets), and Hurst Cycle analysis, as computed by the amazing Sentient Trader software.

First, the monthly chart (below) shows the ZB continuous futures contract from 1978 to present.  If my long-term Elliott Wave labeling is correct, and it hasn’t changed substantially for a very long time, burgundy wave 5 will equal the net traveled by burgundy wave 1 through 3 at 174.^19, and black wave 5 will equal the net traveled of black waves 1 through 3 at 175^02.  That very tight cluster of targets hasn’t been hit yet, but the ZB contract came pretty close when it peaked at 169^15 on February 11.  Is the top in?  Maybe.  Let’s take a closer look . .

30-yr T-Bonds monthly 3-3-16

Moving on to the weekly chart (below), the narrowing price action from the January 2015 high through the December 30, 2015 low appears to have carved out a textbook Elliott Wave triangle.  That interpretation is supported by the ensuing strong up-blast from the December 30, 2015 low through the recent peak on February 11.  Thrusts from triangles are terminal, which means that when they are finished, the pattern is complete and a strong reversal is likely.  As a matter of fact, many terminal thrusts from triangles are completely retraced almost as quickly as they unfolded.

30-yr T-Bonds weekly 3-3-16

Finally, the daily chart (below) shows the blue wave 4 triangle very clearly, followed by the up-thrust.  The thrust from the triangle should subdivide internally into 5 (pink) waves.  So far, it appears to me that 5 pink waves have yet to unfold.  I can see pink waves 1, 2, 3 and 4, but a 5th wave up is required to complete the pattern, in my opinion.  Also, today’s fairly strong upward movement is creating what appears to be a completed (green) ABC zigzag for pink wave 4.  The Sentient Trader “composite line”, which takes all cycles into consideration and projects general market direction was expecting an 80-day cycle low on about March 5.  While that still may occur, it seems more likely at this juncture that the 80-day cycle bottomed yesterday (Wed, March 2).

30-yr T-Bonds daily 3-3-16

The “composite line” is expecting upward movement in the ZB contract initially through March 29.  That might be the top, although the composite line (CL) is expecting an almost-as-high peak on about April 29.  Based on the projected topping zones for the coming 20-week, 40-week, and 18-month cycles, I’m currently projecting that April 29 date to be the end of the so-called “30-yr cycle” in treasuries.

As we near major (large-degree) cycle peaks or troughs, it will important to monitor any adjustments in the Hurst cycle analysis, as the projected “turn dates” can and do “morph” slightly from day to day, based on the development of shorter-term cycles.  Also, truncated 5th waves are not uncommon at large degree tops and bottoms. What’s the best way to stay on top of developments?  Subscribe to one of my paid services!  Has your current subscription service correctly forecasted market direction in bonds in recent quarters?  Does it combine multiple robust methodologies of technical analysis to derive a high confidence directional forecast?  If not, you really should give my paid subscription services a serious look.

Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterward, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service provides updated multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepredictions.com

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