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Jan 172015
 

Thoughts on the USD/CHF currency pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Cick on the chart to enlarge . .

This the USD/CHF exact chart and wave count I showed in last week’s “Counts” webinar.

USDCHF daily 1-16-15

None of the annotations on the chart have been changed since before the surprise announcement from the Swiss National Bank.  Suffice it to say, if a trader had been trading my wave count, they would have been on the right side of this move.  I guess price moved to my targets several months quicker than I thought it would, huh? . . LOL . .

Seriously, I do think its worth noting that this particular instance of central bank “manipulation” is completely different than all the others we’ve been seeing in recent years.  That’s because this one was caused by the REMOVAL of manipulative practices.  Let’s hope for more “REMOVALS” in the near future.   Could the ECB be next?  Why would they blow up their balance sheet now that the Euro has nearly reached parity with the US$?  I therefore think there’s a pretty good chance that on January 22, Draghi continues to aggressively jawbone (threatens to act), but does not substantially deliver a solid date and amount that they will print.  And even if they did announce a date and an aggressive amount, what would stop them from pulling the plug on the idea later, having never actually re-initiated printing at all?

Sid
ElliottWavePredictions.com

Jan 092015
 

Why Chevron (CVX) and Copper, and many other commodity related items are going to rally big! (by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com).  Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

So often, Elliotticians see 5-waves down from a major high and immediately assume that the new trend direction is down. However, this is not always the case. Not by a long shot.

Consider the highly common “expanded flat”. Although they are corrective by nature, when an expanded flat occurs during an uptrend, price appears to move down from a significant high, perhaps even an all-time high (in the case of Chevron), in a clear 5-wave impulse structure. But one must consider the price action prior to the top before calling the trend change! As you can see on the weekly chart below, prior to the all-time high on July 25, 2014, the prior all-time high in July of 2013 was just slightly lower that the 2014 high. And very importantly, up from the October 2008 low, Chevron moved up in a 5-wave impulse into the July 2013 top. That high was followed by a 3-wave downward pink abc (for blue A), and then an aggressive (but corrective) structure to the new all-time high in July 2014 (for blue B). Notice the blue Fibonacci measurements on the chart. The length of the (blue B) rally into the 2014 top was exactly 1.382 times the length of the initial move down from the 2013 high (labeled blue A). Ding! Ding! Warning Bells! Wave B’s of expanded flats are most commonly 1.382 times the length that wave A was. Since an expanded flat subdivides 3-3-5, the 5-waves down from the July 2014 high is therefore highly likely to be wave C of a flat that started in July 2013. CVX also stopped going down at two key supports: the exact .382 retracement of black wave 1, and the extreme of wave 2 within the preceding extended 5th wave.

CVX weekly 1-9-15

Additional support for the idea that Chevron has put in a significant low are threefold:

1) Hurst cycle analysis (by Sentient Trader software) considers the recent December 16 low as a very large 18-month cycle trough;

2) The incredibly aggressive move down in Crude Oil since July 2014 is very likely a terminal thrust from a multi-year triangle. (Thrusts from triangles are quite aggressive, but once they are done, they’re done. A significant trend change to the upside is therefore likely to occur in oil quite soon); and

3) Many other commodities appear to be putting in the final touches to multi-year downward corrective patterns. Case in point: Copper. (see chart below) . .

Copper weekly 1-9-15

Back in April 2007 thru December 2008, Copper got hammered, (along with about everything else), but bottomed after completing only a 3-wave structure. As a matter of fact, that structure came in the shape of another expanded flat.  Out of that late 2008 low, Copper rallied in 5 waves clear waves (outlined in red on the chart) to new highs through February 2011. Since that high, Copper (and Gold, Silver, Platinum and the AUD/USD currency pair, (among other commodity related items), have chopped downward in very similar, clearly corrective structures. The Copper and AUD/USD charts look almost identical, and have finished (or very nearly so) a black WXYXZ structure to current levels. Once again, Hurst cycle analysis considers that all of these items are putting in large 18-month cycle lows here in January.

The conclusion: Because the up move from Dec 2008 thru Feb 2011 in Copper was a 5-wave impulse, and that was followed by clearly corrective downward movement to about the .618 retracement level of the original impulse, A NEW 5-WAVE IMPULSE TO ALL-TIME HIGHS IS EXPECTED IN COPPER. It will be a companion wave C to the wave A up from 2008-2011.

News flash . . the highly correlated AUD/USD pair appears to have bottomed within the last couple of days, and has broken out of its downward price channel to the upside.  See chart below . .

AUDUSD weekly 1-10-15

One last note . . If commodities are going to rally starting about now to all-time new highs, I don’t see how US stocks can simultaneously put in a horrific crash. Inflation should keep assets generally moving to the upside . . at least during most of the inflationary period. Stocks are likely to eventually top before commodities do, as heavy inflation will gradually overwhelm the underlying economies, but that appears to be at least a couple of years out. I am therefore switching my main and alternate counts around for US stocks, with the main count moving forward being less long-term bearish.  In the intermediate term, I now prefer a count that expects a 5-wave structure to the upside starting in 2009 (instead of just an ABC), with wave 3 of that impulse not quite complete yet.  This long-term count change does not alter the roadmap of the shorter-term (trade-able) price and date targets, as shown in my weekly “Counts” webinars for many weeks.

For a complete weekly explanation and rundown of my multi-timeframe wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stock markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds, please join me for my weekly “Counts” webinar. Hurst cycle analysis is considered on virtually all items. Subscriptions can be done one-week at a time, monthly, or annually (at a discount). Broker “Soft Dollars” are also accepted as payment from professional money managers. A recording of the webinar is made available to all subscribers, whether they are in attendance “live” or not. All webinar subscribers will also receive my Sunday and Wednesday EWP ScreenShots as a bonus.

Sid
ElliottWavePredictions.com
ElevenQuarterStocks.com

Jan 052015
 

Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.  Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

US$ DX monthly 1-5-15

US$ DX weekly 1-5-15

US$ DX daily 1-5-15

Using a combination of Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle analysis sometimes provides expectations that are not widely accepted.  For instance, if my interpretation of the narrowing sideways chop in the US Dollar Index from January 2012 through July 2014 is correct as an Elliott Wave triangle, the strong, relentless upshot in the US Dollar over the past 6 months is a terminal thrust.  Thrusts from triangles are almost always destined to be completely retraced.  To say that this view is not widely held at this juncture is an understatement!  The financial media has propped up one talking head after another for months on end now, almost all jawboning about how to best position portfolios for a relentlessly strengthening dollar.  The attached charts show that based on my unique form of technical analysis (combining Elliott Wave with Hurst cycle analysis), I cannot agree with that expectation, especially now that the thrust from the triangle is nearing several important targets.

Elliott Wave includes a method for estimating how long the thrust from a triangle will be.   I’ve shown that methodology on the attached weekly chart.  Notice that the triangle boundary line connecting pink waves A and C of the triangle is extended backward, as is the line connecting waves B and C (pink) of the triangle.  Then, at the start of wave A (pink) of the triangle, I’ve measured the distance between those two lines as 1284 ticks (shown in red on the chart).  1284 ticks is the expected distance that the thrust from the triangle will travel.  (This technique has produced amazingly accurate results many, many times, although it is not considered an Elliott Wave rule.)   I made a copy of the 1284-tick measuring tool, and placed it at the end of the triangle., starting at the blue B (pink e), end-of-triangle low.  This leaves a thrust target in the US Dollar Index of about 92.58 (shown best on the attached daily chart).

There are two additional price targets very near the 92.58 thrust target.  One is at 92.63, the extreme of wave 4 at one lesser degree.  (In this case, the November 2005 high, as shown on the monthly chart).  Also, within the thrust from the triangle (starting July 1, 2014), there are 5 clear internal waves (1 through 5 pink).  Many times, wave 5 within a thrust from a triangle is extended, and extended 5th waves are most often equal to the net traveled by waves 1 though 3.  Pink wave 5 equaled the net traveled by pink waves 1 though 3 at 91.48.  That target was reached today.

Additional evidence of an imminent top in the U.S. Dollar is provided by Hurst cycle analysis via Sentient Trader software.  Utilizing an analysis commencing at the November 2005 high, the current 21.1-week cycle was due to crest (top out) between Nov 24 and Dec 30.  We are just slightly past that expected topping window now.  Also, today’s price action featured an  opening gap higher, followed by a strong upward continuation, but then an equally strong retracement back to the opening level.  On the daily chart, this created a long-wick doji candle.  Hmmm . .

Sid Norris
ElliottWavePredictions.com
ElevenQuarterStocks.com

Dec 052014
 

Technical Analysis of Silver Wheaton Corp. (ticker: SLW) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.

Silver Wheaton (SLW) is showing clear signs that it’ll be producing a 5-wave, non-overlapping Elliott Wave impulse to the upside from its November  11 low.  The 60-minute chart really tells the tale, as an almost unmistakeable wave 4 (pink) triangle is forming.  The charts speak for themselves.

Also significant is the fact that Sentient Trader software, which produces a full Hurst cycle analysis of any chart in just seconds, is labeling the early November low as an 18-month cycle trough.  This doesn’t mean that all miners have bottomed yet, but of the ones that haven’t, they are very likely to do so as SLW puts in its blue wave 2 (shown on the 60-minute chart) after 5-waves up are complete for blue wave 1.

Please join me for my weekly “Counts” webinar, where I spend a full 2.5 hours going over all of my Elliott Wave Counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stock markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst Cycle analysis is always considered.  A recording is made available to all subscribers afterwards, whether in attendance “live” or not.

SLW weekly 12-5-14

SLW daily 12-5-14

SLW 240m 12-5-14

SLW 60m 12-5-14

Once again, please join me for my weekly “Counts” webinar, where I spend a full 2.5 hours going over all of my Elliott Wave Counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stock markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds. Hurst Cycle analysis is always considered. A recording is made available to all subscribers afterwards, whether in attendance “live” or not.  For those looking for a “quick glance” service, featuring multi-timeframe screenshots of my projections for the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, Bonds (TLT), US$ (DX), and Euro (EUR/USD), see my EWP ScreenShots service.  EWP Screenshots subscribers receive access to screenshots on Sundays and again on Wednesdays.

Additionally, my subscription service associated with ElevenQuarterStocks.com is keenly interested in mining stocks at this time. All subscribers to that service receive access to a large number of individual stock charts labeled with my combination of Elliott and Hurst, as well as access to a recording of my most recent monthly Eleven-Quarter Stocks webinar, where I go over a large number of beaten down stocks, including many miners.

NEW!  I can now accept payment for annual subscriptions from money managers who want to utilize their accumulated broker “Soft Dollars“.  If you are a professional money manager with “Soft Dollars” available from your broker, and would like to use them to gain regular access to my work, contact me.  Thanks . .

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com
http://ElevenQuarterStocks.com

Oct 202014
 

Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA Gold & Precious Metals Ltd by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts to enlarge.

As I mentioned in my last post about precious metals and the Aussie/Dollar, ASA Gold & Precious Metals Ltd (ticker: ASA) has long been utilized as a proxy for the precious metals and miners sectors by market professionals. ASA is an investment trust, so it acts very much like a sector ETF. But ASA has existed for far longer than ETF’s, so there’s a nice long history of data to work with.

If one starts an Elliott Wave analysis of ASA in the early 1970’s, an expanding diagonal pattern appears to be underway. In an expanding diagonal, wave 3 must be longer than wave 1, wave 5 must be longer than wave 3, and wave 4 must be longer than wave 2. Additionally, wave 4 must overlap into the price territory of wave 1, and perhaps most importantly (for wave recognition purposes), each wave within an ending expanding diagonal must subdivide into a zigzag.

As you can see on the monthly chart below , all of those requirements are present in the proposed wave count. An updated Hurst Cycle Analysis (using Sentient Trader software) indicates that a large nest of cycle troughs (including the 20 & 40-week, and the very important 18-month cycle) is due between November 22 of this year and April 14 2015.

ASA monthly 10-20-14

If the above Elliott Wave interpretation is correct, all that is left of the precious metals bear market is a Minute-degree (pink) wave 5 to the downside, as shown on the weekly chart below. In ASA, price must move down to $10.14 or below, because wave 4 (burgundy) of the decades-long expanding diagonal must be longer than wave 2 was. Once that occurs, all necessary subdivisions will be in place, and ASA, along with precious metals and miners should rally strongly for several years. Once Wave 5 of the expanding diagonal gets underway, it must end beyond the extreme of wave 3 (burgundy), which peaked in late 2010 at $36.13.

ASA weekly 10-20-14

There are several Fibonacci price targets below $10.14 for the end of blue wave 5 (or alternate blue wave C). They range from $6.77 to $9.99, and are shown on the weekly chart above. I’ll be eying round number support at $10. ASA is $11.80 per share at the moment. By the way, ASA is one of several precious metals and mining sector stocks we are tracking for potential purchase within the Eleven-Quarter-System trading model portfolio.

Sid
ElliottWavePredictions.com
ElevenQuarterStocks.com

 Posted by at 2:27 pm
Sep 252014
 

Elliott Wave, Hurst Cycles and Fibonacci Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on each chart to enlarge.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down only 2.33% since the Friday September 19 all-time high, but Hurst cycle analysis is already suggesting that a major top is “in”. As I described in my last free post about the DJIA, I base all U.S. stock market cyclic conclusions on Sentient Trader Hurst Cycle analysis starting at the Y2K high, as I believe that to be the last significant turning point in the underlying “character” and “pace” of the U.S. stock market.

As of the close today (9/25/2014), an up-to-date Hurst analysis indicates that the 4.5-yr cycle crested in June, and the 18-month cycle crested in May. The 40-week cycle is due to crest on about October 23, but the 20-week cycle, 80-day, and 40-day cycles all crested within the last few days. So, of the six largest cycles that Sentient Trader software can deduce based on a 14-year price history (2000-2014), five are now pressuring price to the downside. This condition appears to be overwhelming the only remaining larger cycle yet to crest, the 40-week. We therefore are very likely to have seen a major top in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on September 19, in my opinion.

From an Elliott Wave standpoint, all of the required subdivisions of an ending contracting diagonal completed on September 19, which, in textbook fashion, concluded with a very slight throw-over of the upper diagonal trendline.

As for Fibonacci price targets, there were a number of significant, large degree targets from 16,690 to 17,455, as shown on the daily chart below. The September 19 top tick of 17,350.64 occurred inside that Fibonacci target cluster.

DJIA weekly 9-25-14

DJIA daily 9-25-14

DJIA 240m 9-25-14

DJIA daily Hurst 9-25-14

The last chart above is a screenshot of the Hurst Cycle Analysis, as performed by Sentient Trader software, after the close of the market today, September 25, 2014.

One last note: Just because the Dow Jones Industrial Average appears to have finished a terminal upside pattern does not mean that every U.S. and European stock index has put in their respective tops. And many of the Asian indices do not appear to have put in their highs for the year yet. For the complete picture, please join me for my weekend “Counts” webinar, where I show all of my Elliott wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’ major stock markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds. Hurst cycle analysis is always considered.

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com
http://ElevenQuarterStocks.com

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