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Hurst Cycle Analysis of the S&P-500 (SPX), starting at the year 1966 high (by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com)

 S&P 500  Comments Off on Hurst Cycle Analysis of the S&P-500 (SPX), starting at the year 1966 high (by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com)
May 202016
 

It’s been a while since I posted to the free blog, so here’s an update on the current Hurst Cycle analysis of the S&P-500.  I’m basically tracking two different analyses.  One starting at the year 1980 high, which I showed in my last post, and the one I’ll be showing in this post, which starts at the year 1966 high.

1966 is widely considered the year of the wave 3 top within a 5-wave impulse up from the 1932 low.  The sideways whipsaw action from 1966 though 1974 is interpreted by many Elliotticians as a cycle-degree 4th wave expanding triangle.  This Hurst (Sentient Trader) analysis places an 18-year cycle trough at that 1974 low, and moves forward from there:

SPX starting at 1966 high - thru May 19 2016

Here’s a closer up view of that same analysis, starting at the 18-year cycle trough in March 2009.  This default (no-re-pinning of troughs was done) Sentient Trader software analysis places the last 4.5-year cycle trough at the June 2013 low, and expects the next 4.5-year (and 9-year) cycle trough in about August of 2017.  Notice that the Sentient Trader composite line is generally expecting downward movement in stocks from about now (late May/early June 2016) through August 2017.

SPX starting at 1966 high - thru May 19 2016 closer up

The following screenshot shows the price action from the June 2013 4.5-year cycle trough through the next projected 4.5-year cycle trough due in August 2017, including the “composite line”.  Within each 4.5-year Hurst cycle, there are three 18-month cycles.  The first 18-month cycle of the three is typically bullish, the middle 18-month cycle of the group of three is typically neutral, and the last of the three 18-month cycles is typically bearish.  This analysis has labeled the recent February 2016 low as the beginning of the 3rd 18-month cycle.

SPX starting at 1966 high - thru May 19 2016 - the 3 18-mo cycles

Finally, zooming in even closer, the composite line is projecting that the next swing high top (currently due between May 27 and May 31) should be followed by general downward movement through mid-2017.  Why would the composite line suggest such an early top within the current 18-month cycle?  Because, according to this unaltered Hurst cycle analysis starting in the year 1966, the S&P is inside the final 18-month cycle within a 4.5-year cycle, AND a 9-year cycle.  So, the 9-year and 4.5-year cycles are already pushing down on price, and the downward pressure being exerted on price by those two cycles will theoretically continue to gradually increase, until the cycle is over in about August 2017, if the starting point of this analysis is correct.

SPX starting at 1966 high - thru May 19 2016 much closer

So how does the expectation of coming Hurst cycles peaks and troughs (including shorter term cycles like the 80-day and 40-day) fit into my long, intermediate, and short-term Elliott Wave counts, and associated Fibonacci price targets?  Please subscribe to one of my services to get the whole picture.

Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterward, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service provides updated multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepredictions.com

Highlights from Sid’s March 20, 2016 “Counts” Webinar, featuring long-term Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average

 Dow Jones Industrial Average  Comments Off on Highlights from Sid’s March 20, 2016 “Counts” Webinar, featuring long-term Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
Mar 242016
 

The video clip below is the first 15 minutes from Sid’s March 20, 2016 “Counts” Webinar.  The primary topic is the long-term Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  Included is a discussion of the proper placement of the most recent 54-year Kondratieff cycle trough, and how a combined Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle analysis looks moving forward, if the last 54-year K-wave trough occurred in 1982.  Click on the graphic below to play the video . .

DJIA Hurst starting 1980 thumbnail

Does you current subscription service show detail on multiple timeframe charts? Does is show a main and an alternate, invalidation points for both, and the most likely Fibonacci targets? Does it also consider Hurst cycle analysis, projecting date ranges for coming projected peaks and troughs on multiple timeframes? If not, please give my services a serious look. I’ve said it before, and I’ll continue to say it: I’m finding that the combination of Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle analysis is more powerful than the individual methodologies in isolation.

Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterward, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service provides updated multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepredictions.com

Combined Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle Analysis of the Nasdaq (NQ Futures Contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 Nasdaq, NQ Futures Contract, QQQ  Comments Off on Combined Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle Analysis of the Nasdaq (NQ Futures Contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Mar 112016
 

Combined Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle Analysis of the Nasdaq (NQ Futures Contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.

The NQ futures contract has been presenting very clear internal wave structures and Hurst cycle designations for past year and a half, and should be considered a proxy for wave counts and Hurst Cycle analysis in other US stock market indices, in my opinion.

NQ daily 3-11-16

Starting at the October 16, 2014 low, the upward movement into the July 20, 2015 high carved out a clear ending contracting diagonal.  I’m labeling that July 20 high as the end of blue (minor degree) wave 3 within black (intermediate) wave C of a burgundy (primary) wave Y within an upward double zigzag that started all the way back in at the October 2002 low.  Then, the strong downward move from July 20 into the August 24, 2015 low was in three waves, so I’ve labeled that low as the end of blue wave 4.  That was followed by an upward 5-wave impulse into the December 2, 2015 top.  I’ve labeled that top as the end of teal (cycle degree) wave B.

Then, from the December 2, 2015 all time high in the NQ, price moved down in a clear 5-wave impulse into the February 11 low.  Upward movement from that February 11 low started quite aggressively but appears to have lost momentum over the past week.  Importantly, the upward movement from the Feb 11 low appears to be forming a corrective, 3-wave (blue) ABC structure.

As for a Hurst Cycle analysis, we use an unaltered Sentient Trader nominal trough-based model on the continuous NQ contract starting at the March 2000 mania top.  This analysis has remained consistent for many months.  It labels the October 16, 2014 low is the last 18-month cycle trough, the August 24, 2015 low as the last 40-week cycle trough, and the February 11, 2016 low as a 20-week cycle trough.  Moving forward, and this is very important, there is an 18-month cycle trough still in front of us, due in mid-June of this year.  Is the stock market going to continue to climb as that 18-month cycle trough draws nearer and nearer.  Likely not.

So we currently have 5-waves down into from Dec 2 through Feb 11 followed by an ABC partial retracement, which is losing upward momentum with wave C (blue) currently shorter than wave A was.  Hmmm . .

Wave 2’s most commonly retrace between 50 and 61.8% of wave 1’s.  Also, price appears to have moved up into an 80-day cycle topping date window.  The resulting target zone for a top for wave 2 is shown on the chart by the gray oval.  The Sentient Trader “composite line” (CL) is suggesting that the NQ will top early in that window, which makes sense, as the longer cycles will theoretically provide gradually increasing downward pressure through mid-June.

Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterward, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service provides updated multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepredictions.com

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