Elliott Wave analysis of GDX (Gold Miners ETF) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

GDX looks to continue lower, with the next large-degree Fibonacci target at 18.50 (where blue C will equal blue A times 2.618). The movement to the downside since September 2012 appears to be a 5th wave within an expanding ending diagonal. Wave 5′s within expanding diagonals are generally quite aggressive, typically ending just before reaching a trendline extending from the extremes of wave 1 and 3.

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

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Elliott Wave Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

The Dow hit my triangle thrust target of 15261.35 today, and while Elliott Wave thrust-from-triangle targets are guidelines and not rules, the market is respecting the level so far. The upward movement in the Dow can be counted as complete. Other US indices sporting thrusts from intermediate degree wave B triangles are: 1) the SPX (thrust target 1684.1 – not hit yet), and 2) the ES Futures Contract (thrust target 1661.25 – not hit yet, but very, very close today @ 1659.75). The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 did not form wave B black triangles during the second half of last year, but both appear to need a pink wave 4 and 5 to finish their respective up-trends.

Note added May 21: I went back and made a more exact measurement of the intermediate (black) B triangle that lasted from March 19 through December 31 of last year in the SPX, and have revised the SPX thrust target to 1693.81. From December 31, I am expecting 5 blue waves up.  Blue 4 ended April 18 at 1536.03. From April 18 forward, Blue wave 5 should consist of 5 pink waves, with pink 1 and 2 done, and pink 3 either just now finishing or still underway. Pink 2 ended May 1 at 1581.28, and was shallow and brief.  I expect wave 4 to unfold showing “alternation” with wave 2.   As of this writing, I still don’t see any corrections large enough to label a pink 4 yet.  Pink 4 should be followed by pink 5 to the upside, which should end cycle degree teal wave B.

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

Services Offered by ElliottWavePredictions.com:

• EWP ScreenShots
• Weekly “Counts” Webinars
• Sid’s movie of his method: “Early Detection of Trend Changes”
• On-Demand Analysis

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Elliott Wave Analysis of Caterpillar (CAT) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

Since February 2012, CAT has been sporting 5-wave impulses to the downside, and 3-wave corrective structures to the upside, essentially amounting to a very bearish nested 1-2. Look out below!

Services Offered by ElliottWavePredictions.com:

• EWP ScreenShots
• Weekly “Counts” Webinars
• Sid’s movie of his method: “Early Detection of Trend Changes”
• On-Demand Analysis

Sid

http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

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Elliott Wave Analysis of the Dow Jones Transportation Average by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

The “reporters” at the most prominent financial TV news network have lately been chirping about Dow Theory, the oldest known form of technical analysis of the markets, proclaiming that new highs in both the Transports and the Industrials comfirm a bull market.

However, the Elliott Wave pattern in the Transports is corrective, and nearly complete in my opinion. Here’s what I’m seeing in the Transports:

- The monthly chart shows that the movement up from the March 2009 low is built in “threes”, and is overlapping. These are classic corrective structures.

- The weekly chart shows the corrective upward movement more clearly. with a weekly MACD histogram divergence likely to form with the next bearish (red) candle. On a semi-log chart, wave B burgundy is right at 1.382 times the length that wave A burgundy was. This is the most common relationship between wave B and wave A of an expanded or running flat.

- The daily chart reveals a blue wave B triangle having recently finished, and the strong upward movement over the past few days as a terminal thrust from the triangle. Based on Elliott’s triangle measuring technique, the thrust is likely to end around 6492, or about 1.2% higher than today’s close.

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

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