You are here: Home » Individual Stocks

Individual Stocks

Updated Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 Gold, Individual Stocks, Miners, Silver  Comments Off on Updated Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Jul 162015
 

Updated Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.  Click on the charts to enlarge.

Back on July 2nd, I posted a workup on ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited.  Since then, ASA has continued lower, and yesterday reached a significant Fibonacci target of $8.94, where wave 5 blue equaled the net traveled by waves 1 through 3 blue times .618.  This is the most common Fibonacci target for the length of a 5th wave, so has ASA put in its low?  Here’s a new Elliott Wave interpretation of the wave structure since the January 2015 highs, suggesting that ASA is finishing its downward pattern this week.

ASA daily 7-16-15

The new developments in my main Elliott wave count and Hurst cycle analysis are:

1)  I’ve found a way to count five waves down from the January 2015 high in the form of an expanding ending diagonal.  Wave fives of expanding diagonals are quite aggressive, but constitute the final wave of the pattern.  Beware that fifth waves of expanding diagonals can keep going a lot further than logic would dictate, but with COT sentiment on Gold at near record levels of bearishness, we should see a bottom any day.  Also note that wave 5 of expanding diagonals must be longer than wave 3 was, and that condition was met at $9.25.

2)  Sentient Trader software is now placing a large 4.5-year cycle trough market at the December 2014 low, and not the June 2013 low.  This generally means that ASA should move higher, even if the movement is corrective, over the next several quarters at least.  This change also altered the placement of the smaller cycle troughs after December 2014.  An 80-day cycle trough is due essentially now (July 7 thru July 16), which should be followed by upward movement into the coming 80-day cycle crest, due in mid-August.  I think that upward movement into August will be wave 1 of the new upward trend.

As goes ASA, so goes Gold, Silver, precious metals, and the mining sector, although ASA usually leads.

Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterwards, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service shows multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable over the years.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA (Gold & Silver Stocks) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 Gold, Individual Stocks, Miners, Silver  Comments Off on Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA (Gold & Silver Stocks) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Jul 022015
 

Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA (Gold & Silver Stocks) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.  Click on the charts to enlarge.

From Yahoo Finance:  “ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited is ASA a self management investment trust. The firm invests in the public equity markets across the globe. It primarily invests in stocks of companies engaged in the exploration, mining or processing of gold, silver, platinum, diamonds, or other precious minerals. ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited was founded in 1958 and is based in San Mateo, California.”

ASA weekly 7-2-15

For decades, professional money managers have used ASA as a proxy for the entire precious metals sector.  From an Elliott Wave perspective, ASA (as well as a large number of precious metals stocks and ETF’s for that matter) appears to be in the very late stages of completing a large expanded flat structure that commenced in March 2008.  Expanded flats are ABC structures that subdivide 3-3-5.

Wave A’s of expanded flats must internally subdivide as a “three”, and the downward movement from March through October 2008 appears to easily meet that requirement.  Wave B’s of expanded flats are also “threes”, and most often retrace wave A by 123.6% to 138.2%.  In this case, primary wave B (burgundy) retraced wave A by factor of 1.236.  It also subdivided as an ABC structure.  Textbook.

Primary degree wave C (burgundy) of the expanded flat has been underway since December 2010, and needs to complete five intermediate (black) waves down.  Wave C’s of expanded flats internally subdivide as a “five”, and end beyond the extreme of wave A.  Downward movement since December 2010 in ASA easily counts as a five-wave non-overlapping impulse, and has already moved below its October 2008 low of $10.34, so the overall scope and shape of the expanded flat on a weekly chart (above) has appeared complete since December 2014.

ASA daily 7-2-15

However, as we zoom in on the most recent price action on a daily chart (above), despite the  appearance (at the time) of a completed black wave five on December 16, 2014, followed by five waves up into January 20, 2015, ASA made a new low yesterday.  So what’s going on?

In my opinion, the five waves up into January was wave C of an expanded flat for blue wave four.  Then, starting at the January 20 high, blue wave five in ASA is likely carving out a contracting ending diagonal.  Internal subdivisions since the end of blue wave 4 have been somewhat ambiguous, which fits well with the diagonal interpretation, as each leg of a diagonal is typically a corrective ABC.  Because Hurst cycle analysis is expecting that a 20-week cycle trough is a bit overdue, and based on the Fibonacci targets shown on the chart, it appears that ASA is bottoming in pink wave 3 of the contracting ending diagonal now, with pink wave 4 due next, likely moving price up into late August.  Then, if this interpretation is correct, there will be a final pink wave 5 to the downside, ending in about September/October 2015.  $8.94 is a solid target for the end of the diagonal later this year, as that is where blue wave five will be .618 times the net traveled of blue waves one through three.

In contracting ending diagonals, wave three must be shorter than wave one was, so if ASA is putting in its pink wave three bottom about now, price cannot move below $9.03.  Then, wave four (pink) cannot be longer than wave two pink was, followed by a wave five that is shorter than wave three was.  It should be noted that wave fives’s of ending diagonals can also truncate.  Each (pink) leg of the diagonal should subdivide internally as a green abc zigzag.

Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterwards, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service shows multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable over the years.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of General Electric (GE) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 Dow Jones Industrial Average, Individual Stocks  Comments Off on Elliott Wave Analysis of General Electric (GE) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Apr 142015
 

Elliott Wave Analysis of General Electric (GE) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.  Click on the charts to enlarge.

This continues my series covering Dow 30 components.  As a refresher, so far in the series this year, I’ve posted technical analysis of American Express AXP)Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), Cicso Systems (CSCO), and Chevron (CVX).

GE monthly 4-14-15

As the GE monthly chart above shows, I believe that General Electric stock, just like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, carved out a cycle (teal) degree wave 4 during the late 60’s and early 70’s, ending in 1974.  This was followed by an extended 5th wave to the upside, concluding in the year 2000.  Note that after extended 5th waves, the following corrective period quite often corrects back to the extreme of wave 2 within that preceding extended 5th wave.  In GE, that target is an amazingly low $0.91 per share.  Is it actually possible for GE to drop over the next few years down to a buck?  It doesn’t seem likely.  And based on Elliott’s guideline of alternation, it won’t.  If my labeling of the deep (90%) correction ending in 1932 in the DJIA as the end of Supercycle wave 2 is correct, Supercycle wave 4 is likely to be a more shallow, sideways affair.  It therefore seems more likely that GE will not drop substantially below the 2009 low of $5.73 before Supercycle wave 5 to the upside gets underway.

As similar as the upward movement in GE is to the DJIA from 1974 though 2000, the two have definitely parted ways since.  Unlike the Dow, the Y2K top remains the all-time high in General Electric to this day.  Down from that August 2000 all-time high, you can see the obvious ABC zigzag through March 2009.  I’ve labeled the 2000-2009 period as Cycle (teal) wave W within an unfinished Supercycle (olive) wave 4.  Why?  Why not call 2009 the end of Supercycle wave 4?  The answer is due to the “character” of the price action since the 2009 low.

GE weekly 4-14-15

As the weekly chart above shows, if the upward movement from March 2009 was to be labeled a 5-wave impulse to the upside, with wave 1 ending in April 2010, and wave 2 ending in October 2011, the supposed wave 3 (from October 2011 though January 2014) should have been much stronger than it was.  Not only did it not break out of the top of the “base” channel (shown in burgundy), it really never moved substantially into the upper half of that base channel. Additionally, within that “theoretical” burgundy wave 3 (from Oct 2011 thru Jan 2014), black waves 1, 2, 3, and 4 are already finished, and wave 3 was shorter than wave 1 was.  This is NOT wave 3 stuff!  Lastly, the monthly RSI has been diverging for over 5 full calendar quarters.  For those reasons, I am labeling the upward movement in GE stock since March 2009 as Primary (burgundy) waves ABC, with the C-wave not quite complete yet.  If I’m correct, once Wave C (burgundy) completes, Cycle (teal) wave X will also be complete, and will be followed by (multi-year) downward movement in the form of a Cycle (teal) wave Y.

It is also worth noting that Sentient Trader software is considering the October/November 2011 lows as the last 4.5-year Hurst cycle trough in GE, identical to its analysis of the DJIA, when starting the analysis at the Y2K top.  This means that the next 4.5-year cycle trough is due in GE in early-to-mid 2016, and the next 4.5-yr cycle trough after that in late 2020.  These dates for projected cycle  lows keep popping up in independent Hurst Cycle analysis of stock after stock, and index after index.

GE daily 4-14-15

Finally, on the daily chart above, black wave 4 (within primary/burgundy wave C) appears have completed a one-year-long blue ABC zigzag on January 14 of this year.  Wave B (blue) of that zigzag was a pink a-b-c-d-e triangle, so the last wave down into the Jan 14 low was a terminal thrust.  Upward movement since January 14 is therefore very likely black wave 5, to complete burgundy wave C.  Black wave 5 should subdivide into 5 blue waves.  It appears that blue wave 3 is still underway, with a target of $29.20.  That should be followed by a blue waves 4 and 5, with the 5th wave topping at about the top of the (black) channel, around $30.50.  Importantly, because black wave 3 was shorter than black wave 1, black wave 5 must be shorter that black wave 3 was.  This is due to one of the three rules of Elliott:  “Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of waves 1, 3, and 5”.   So, black wave 5 cannot reach $31.24, if my placement of the black 1, 2, and 3 labels on the weekly chart is correct.

Please join me for my next weekly “Counts” webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stock markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on virtually all items.  A recording of the webinar is provided to all subscribers, whether in attendance  “live” or not.  In addition, all “Counts” webinar subscribers receive my Sunday and Wednesday EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus!

Many traders find my work extremely helpful in their trading!  Here are just a few of the testimonials from those traders/investors.

Sid

Content Protected Using Blog Protector By: PcDrome. & GeekyCube.
ewplogotransorangews

We should stay in touch!

Register to automatically receive email notification of important new market analysis from Sid.  Register now and we'll send you FREE access to Sid's newest educational video: "Introduction to How I Combine Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis".

You have Successfully Subscribed!