You are here: Home » S&P 500

S&P 500

How Sid Norris of ElliottWavePredictions.com Correctly Forecasted Market Direction Both Before and After the Brexit Vote

 S&P 500  Comments Off on How Sid Norris of ElliottWavePredictions.com Correctly Forecasted Market Direction Both Before and After the Brexit Vote
Jul 092016
 

How I Correctly Forecasted Market Direction Both Before and After the Brexit Vote:

Many traders have been surprised by two events recently.  First, the surprise Brexit vote on Friday, June 22 (overnight, before the US markets opened), and second, the surprise stock market bounce starting on Tuesday,  June 26.  Here are the EXACT communications I sent out to paid subscribers just prior to the two events:


From the mid-week (June 20, 2016) edition of EWP Screenshots: 
First, here’s my short-term wave count and projected market direction prior to the June 23 Brexit vote.  The following screenshot was included in the Wednesday, June 20 edition of EWP ScreenShots.  Notice that based on the Sentient Trader (Hurst) “composite line” (CL), I was projecting that price would move down through late Monday, June 25 and then bounce from there.
SPX 60m 6-22-16

Supplementary email to EWP ScreenShots subscribers sent Monday, June 27, at about 5PM (CDT):
“Dear EWP ScreenShots subscriber,
        During the weekend {June 26} “Counts” webinar, I stated that I was expecting a relief bounce soon in the SPX, but was unsure whether a short-term bottom was “in” yet or not.  In my labeling, I left room for additional downside. We got the answer today, as further downward movement ensued.  (See the attached 90-minute updated chart).
        I’m still not quite sure if the knee-jerk downdraft associated with the surprise Brexit vote result is finished yet, but a tight cluster of Fibonacci targets was hit today (1999.2 – 1999.8), and at least so far, is being respected.
        Hurst widened its 20-week cycle trough window a bit today to accommodate for the lower prices, but as you can see on the chart, the composite line is still showing June 24 as the projected bottoming day. Based on the Hurst analysis, I’m still expecting a bounce quite soon, and IF wave 1 green is finished, the expected corrective green wave 2 should rebound to the 2049-2067 area next, through mid-July.
        IF price continues strongly to the downside, the next lower Fib target is 1929.6, where pink wave 3 would equal pink wave 1 times 2.618.”    {The following screenshot was attached}:
SPX 90m 6-27-16

Supplementary Email to EWP ScreenShots subscribers sent Thursday, June 28, at about 5PM (CDT):
“Dear EWP ScreenShots subscribers,
        The SPX has continued ripping higher for a third day, and has now retraced over .786 of the “Brexit drop”.  I’m very happy to have predicted this bounce (in the Monday night email to subscribers), and am also happy to have surmised (in the June 26 “Counts” webinar) that the coming green wave 2 retracement would likely be deep.  As a reminder, I expected the bounce to be deep because of the degree (20-week) of the trough expected in late June (June 24 (CL).
        The composite line projected retracement top of July 15 has hopefully prevented early entry into short positions.  Please note that the suggested composite line peak on July 15 is still in place, but the subsequent downward movement is not projected to be strong (initially) from that date.  As a matter of fact, the composite line is giving the appearance of a “double top” now, on July 15 and on August 4.  (See the attached screenshot of the short-term Sentient Trader analysis).
        So considering the size of the bounce so far, and the fact that it has occurred very quickly, and very much in a straight line, I’ve had to move the alternate black X? label back into the future.
        As I mentioned in a quick update email a couple of weeks back as a caveat to calling a top , the pink wave 5? never hit a known Fibonacci target, and was inordinately shorter than a normal 5th wave.  If the Brexit drop actually ended pink wave 4?, then we now have a target for the end of pink wave 5? (and therefore black X?) at 2177.87.  (See the attached updated SPX 240-minute chart, with the projected main and alternate counts.)
        Admittedly, this last three-day up-burst is large enough now to suggest that the alternate is easily as likely as the main, if not more likely at this point.”   {The following screenshots were attached}:
SPX Sentient Trader Hurst with composite line - daily - 6-30-16
SPX 240m 6-30-16

While some forecasting services send out a lot of marketing material bragging about their “calls”, did they really “call” the drop ahead of the Brexit, AND the strong bounce that followed two trading days later?  We’re their calls specific enough to be tradeable?  Were they correct regarding forecasted direction from a specific date and/or Fibonacci target?
The bottom line:   My unique system of utilizing a combination of Elliott Wave and Hurst cycle analysis did a fantastic job of forecasting market direction  in the days surrounding the Brexit vote.  Did your current forecasting service catch both the down and up moves recently in such a way that could be traded profitably?
Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterward, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service provides updated multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable.

Hurst Cycle Analysis of the S&P-500 (SPX), starting at the year 1966 high (by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com)

 S&P 500  Comments Off on Hurst Cycle Analysis of the S&P-500 (SPX), starting at the year 1966 high (by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com)
May 202016
 

It’s been a while since I posted to the free blog, so here’s an update on the current Hurst Cycle analysis of the S&P-500.  I’m basically tracking two different analyses.  One starting at the year 1980 high, which I showed in my last post, and the one I’ll be showing in this post, which starts at the year 1966 high.

1966 is widely considered the year of the wave 3 top within a 5-wave impulse up from the 1932 low.  The sideways whipsaw action from 1966 though 1974 is interpreted by many Elliotticians as a cycle-degree 4th wave expanding triangle.  This Hurst (Sentient Trader) analysis places an 18-year cycle trough at that 1974 low, and moves forward from there:

SPX starting at 1966 high - thru May 19 2016

Here’s a closer up view of that same analysis, starting at the 18-year cycle trough in March 2009.  This default (no-re-pinning of troughs was done) Sentient Trader software analysis places the last 4.5-year cycle trough at the June 2013 low, and expects the next 4.5-year (and 9-year) cycle trough in about August of 2017.  Notice that the Sentient Trader composite line is generally expecting downward movement in stocks from about now (late May/early June 2016) through August 2017.

SPX starting at 1966 high - thru May 19 2016 closer up

The following screenshot shows the price action from the June 2013 4.5-year cycle trough through the next projected 4.5-year cycle trough due in August 2017, including the “composite line”.  Within each 4.5-year Hurst cycle, there are three 18-month cycles.  The first 18-month cycle of the three is typically bullish, the middle 18-month cycle of the group of three is typically neutral, and the last of the three 18-month cycles is typically bearish.  This analysis has labeled the recent February 2016 low as the beginning of the 3rd 18-month cycle.

SPX starting at 1966 high - thru May 19 2016 - the 3 18-mo cycles

Finally, zooming in even closer, the composite line is projecting that the next swing high top (currently due between May 27 and May 31) should be followed by general downward movement through mid-2017.  Why would the composite line suggest such an early top within the current 18-month cycle?  Because, according to this unaltered Hurst cycle analysis starting in the year 1966, the S&P is inside the final 18-month cycle within a 4.5-year cycle, AND a 9-year cycle.  So, the 9-year and 4.5-year cycles are already pushing down on price, and the downward pressure being exerted on price by those two cycles will theoretically continue to gradually increase, until the cycle is over in about August 2017, if the starting point of this analysis is correct.

SPX starting at 1966 high - thru May 19 2016 much closer

So how does the expectation of coming Hurst cycles peaks and troughs (including shorter term cycles like the 80-day and 40-day) fit into my long, intermediate, and short-term Elliott Wave counts, and associated Fibonacci price targets?  Please subscribe to one of my services to get the whole picture.

Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterward, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service provides updated multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepredictions.com

Highlights from Sid’s January 10, 2016 “Counts” Webinar – from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500  Comments Off on Highlights from Sid’s January 10, 2016 “Counts” Webinar – from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Jan 162016
 

Highlights from Sid’s January 10, 2016 “Counts” Webinar, featuring the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P-500 – from ElliottWavePredictions.com.

A week ago, I posted highlights from the January 3 “Counts” webinar, indicating that I thought the week of Jan 4-8 would be a strong down week in the stock markets.  As it turned out, the markets did move strongly to the downside that week.

The video below contains a few highlights from my January 10 “Counts webinar.  In it, I explain the reasons why I thought there would be a small bounce into about Tuesday, January 12, to be followed by strong downward movement.  That prediction, once again, was quite accurate, as the stocks markets recovered slightly, into Tuesday/Wednesday, followed by strong downside continuation.  Click on the graphic below to view the 12-minute video clip . .

1-10-16 Counts Webinar Highlights Thumbnail

Did your current subscription service correctly forecast market direction the last several weeks?  Does it combine multiple robust methodologies of technical analysis to derive a high confidence directional forecast?  If not, you really should give my paid subscription services a serious look.

Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterward, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service provides updated multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepredictions.com

P.S.  Please don’t make the mistake of placing trades based on the analysis shown in week-old videos!  The reason I’m posting these most recent videos is to show how my directional forecast fared last week.  Elliott Wave interpretation, Fibonacci price targets, and Hurst cycle dates can and do morph.  To receive fresh information from me every Sunday and Wednesday, please subscribe to one of the paid services listed above.  Thanks . .

Content Protected Using Blog Protector By: PcDrome. & GeekyCube.
ewplogotransorangews

We should stay in touch!

Register to automatically receive email notification of important new market analysis from Sid.  Register now and we'll send you FREE access to Sid's newest educational video: "Introduction to How I Combine Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis".

You have Successfully Subscribed!