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Sep 182013

Oil QM daily 9-18-13

Elliott Wave Analysis of Oil (QM futures contract) by Sid from Click on the Chart twice to enlarge.

Oil may have just finished a blue wave 4 triangle, and if it did, Oil will be shooting to the upside aggressively for probably the next couple of weeks at least. If an upward thrust from a triangle is underway, it has logically coincided with US$ weakness over the last couple of hours (leading into the FOMC announcement, due in about fifteen minutes), so if the size of the triangle is an indicator of the size of the thrust, and it usually is, the U.S. Dollar may continue to weaken until this last hoorah runs its course. The reason I say “last hoorah” is because thrusts from triangles are terminal, meaning they mark the final move of larger patterns.

Ultimately, a large spike in oil could easily deal a crushing blow to the already weak economy, so if the upward thrust moves as high as the target zone shown on the chart, it will likely act as the only trump card left that could defeat the fed’s printing press.


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