Gold E-mini – February 13, 2011 – 360 minute candles. 5 waves down seems likely . .

The recent upward move in Gold is choppy . .  definitely not impulsive.  The MACD has rolled over, and it looks like we’ll likely see a new low (that is, since the 12/7/10 historic high). If the Gold E-mini moves below 1309.80 over the next two or three weeks, it will likely not be accompanied by a new low in the MACD on the 360 minute chart.  This will create a clear 5 waves down (complete with MACD divergence), constituting either a wave 1 (of an impulse) or a wave A (of a zigzag) of a continued downside move that should last at least several months (after a wave 2 or B to the upside, of course).  If it breaks above 1373.9, (the extreme of wave 1), this means we only got 3 waves down, and price should continue on to new highs.