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Nov 162012
 

Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P-500 (SPX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

Wave 3 blue ended a few minutes ago at 1343, about 4 points shy of my wave 3 blue target, where wave 3 would have equalled 1.618 times wave 1. Since wave 2 blue was a “flat”, based on the guideline of alternation, wave 4 blue is likely to be a zigzag, triangle, or WXY combination. A zigzag is most likely. Wave 2 blue retraced exacly half of wave 1 blue, which is neither deep or shallow, so any expectation of whether wave 4 blue will be deep or shallow isn’t necessarily available based on alternation. However, using Elliott’s channelling technique, wave 1 black is likely to travel within a channel drawn by connecting the extremes of (blue) 1 and 3, and placing a parallel copy intersecting wave 2 (blue). If wave 4 blue stays inside that channel, it is most likely to be a shallow .382 retracement of the entirely of wave 3 blue. My initial wave 4 blue target is therefore at 1378, with invalidation at 1405.14. Once wave 4 blue is complete, likely targets for wave 5 blue can be developed.

Note the 60 minute MACD hiostogram divergence shown on the chart. The same divergence is “in” on charts as long as 240 minutes, a long enough timeframe to suggest that a period of consolodation/retracement has arrived. I’ll be paying close attention to the wave structure up from today’s low, and will be communicating with webinar regulars during the week about which pattern for wave 4 blue is likely developing.

Please join me for my weekly weekend counts webinar, where I show all of my wave counts and targets for numerous world stock markets, commodities, and currencies. Here’s more info, including how to enroll. All enrollees will recieve access to a recording of the 2-hr+ webinar immediately afterwards, whether in attendance live or not.

Sid
http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com

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