Elliott Wave Analysis of the USD/JPY Currency Pair and 30yr T-bonds by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts twice to enlarge.
Since the May 22 high, the USD/JPY currency pair has exhibited what is likely to be a final zigzag to the downside to complete blue wave 2. The zigzag started with a 5-wave downward impulse from May 22 through May 23 for wave “a”, followed by a wave “b” triangle though May 29. The shear drop over the last 24 hours is therefore likely to be wave c of the zigzag, the highly impulsive “terminal thrust” from the triangle. The triangle thrust target of 78.879 has already been achieved, and the thrust, which should be a 5-wave impulse, appears to be in its final stages. If my main wave count is correct, and the move up from October 31 of last year through March 21 of this year was a 5-wave impulse for wave 1, the choppy overlapping correction since has now retraced a fibonacci .618, quite typical for a wave 2. Also, the move down from March 21 counts best in my opinion as a W-X-Y-X-Z, so the Yen appears to have run out of alphabet. I’m therefore looking for a large trend change to commence to the upside quite shortly.
As for 30-Year Treasuries (see the ZB futures contract chart above), the sideways choppy overlapping movement since the May 17 high also appears to have been a triangle, so the upward movement since the May 27 low is also likely to be a terminal thrust, but the thrust target of 150^02 wasn’t quite reached today, and only waves 1, 2, & 3 of the thrust appear to have completed. I’ll be looking for waves 4 and 5 to finish before calling a top, which should occur quite rapidly . . possibly finishing as early as tomorrow in my opinion. It is likely that both bonds and the yen will finish their impulsive thrusts at about the same time.
FYI: I’ll be attending a large family reunion this weekend, so the next live weekend broadcast will be on June 10. I’ll try to answer emails from webinar regulars using my smartphone over the next week, but won’t be attaching any charts. Not the best timing I know, but duty calls . .
Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com
