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Elliott Wave Analysis of the GBP/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

GBP/USD Comments Off

Mar 212013

Elliott Wave Analysis of the GBP/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

Since my last free post about the British Pound on January 10, when the pair was at 1.6166 and I suggested that a very sizeable move to the downside was imminent, Cable has moved southward by over 1300 pips.

More recently, since the March 12 low, the pair has been in an upward correction. It appears that GBP/USD may be in the final stages of finishing an upward 5-3-5 zigzag, with wave C pink likely in the final stages of finishing an ending diagonal. If this interpretation is correct, Cable will rally to challenge the upper diagonal trendline extending from the extremes of waves 1 and 3 green. Ending diagonals can truncate, but typically will “throw-over” that line slightly. Since the diagonal is contracting, wave 5 green cannot be longer than wave 3 green was, leaving a maximum for wave 5 green at 1.52447.

Despite the brevity of the proposed correction, considering the longer term count that the Pound is in a thrust out of a 4-year-long triangle, this could mark the end of wave 2 blue, and the resumption of an even more aggressive section of the proposed 3700+ pip crash, the wave 3 of 3.

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

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EUR/USD and GBP/USD Update by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, S&P 500 Comments Off

Dec 052012

EUR/USD and GBP/USD Elliott Wave Update by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

Even though the wave count in my last EUR/USD post was not invalidated, it came so very close that I revisted all timeframes on both the Euro and British Pound, and here are the results.

Both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs have been carving out apparent triangles starting way back in late 2008. The triangle in the Pound, when looking at a weekly chart (shown below), has much cleaner “look” to it, with wave E creating an obvious “three”, and retracing almost exactly a very common (and relatively deep) .707 of the previous wave D. It appears most likely that wave E ended in September of this year.

However, the triangle in the Euro is less tidy, with a wave E (as I have been counting it) ending all the way back in March, retracing only .382 of wave D, and not lasting near as long as the wave E in the Pound. The alternate count in the Euro (also shown on the weekly chart below) is that wave D ended in July, thereby forming a “flatter” triangle, with wave E yet to complete. The .618 target for wave E in this alternate view is all the way up at 1.3832.

This brings me to my main point. Since wave E in the Pound already lasted proportionally long enough in comparison with the other waves in the triangle, and finished (back in September) with a fairly deep .707 retracement of wave D, if the Euro was to rally from here all the wave up to the alternate 1.38 area, there likely isn’t room enough for the Pound to rally in a similar manner (against the US Dollar) without invalidating its triangle by moving above the extreme of wave C at 1.6746. So, when simultaneously considering the triangles in both the Pound and the Euro, I’ve been thinking, and continue to think that wave E in the Euro did, in fact, end back in March. This is why I have leaned heavily toward a bearish bias on the Euro for many months.

The rest of the Euro story is told on the daily and 360-minute charts below. I reworked the Euro wave count up from the July low today, and because my S&P-500 wave count expects a bit more rally (up to 1441, but not above invalidation at 1464.02), upward movement in the Euro is likely incomplete, with a final green wave 5 due next. The upward target zone for green 5 is fairly large, because 5th waves can truncate or extend. This leaves a target zone for the end of the upmove in the Euro somewhere between 1.31 to 1.3228. Movement below 1.30155 would indicate that a top for wave 2 black is likely “in”.

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (NQ futures contract) by Sid from EllliottWavePredictions.com

GBP/USD, Nasdaq Comments Off

Jul 042012

Elliott Wave Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (NQ futures contract) by Sid from EllliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

The last 24 hours have brought further clarity to several of my equity and currency Elliott Wave counts. For instance, the NQ futures contract has now retraced almost exactly .618 of the clear, non-overlapping impulse down from late March though early June. The upward movement since June 6 is corrective, and is potentially complete, as all necessary subdivisions are in place. In addition, the MACD is showing early signs of divergence between the June 20 high and the July 3 high, and is doing so on intraday charts using candles as long as 360 minutes each, usually a very strong sign of impending reversal. Finally, the British Pound has broken to the downside in 5 waves overnight, and appears to be entering the most aggressive portion of wave 3 black, suggesting that a vigorous resumption of the trend toward US Dollar strength is near. By the way, my eventual downside target for the Pound is still about 3000 pips lower from here before the terminal thrust out of the 3+ year-long triangle is over.

The next two days certainly have some potential high-octane catalysts for a trend change in-store: The Bank of England and the ECB announce rate decisions at 7:00 and 7:45 tomorrow morning (EDT), and then Friday is the NFP employment report at 8:30 am. Put it all together, and we have the makings of an imminent strong downward move in equities.

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold and Silver by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

GBP/USD, Gold, Silver Comments Off

May 122012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold and Silver, and an update on the British Pound by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

Both Gold and Silver appear to be sporting triangles in the middle of the recent downward movement starting February 28/29. Since triangles cannot appear alone in a wave 2 position, these triangles are most likely “B” waves inside an ABC zigzag to the downside. If that interpretation is correct, as soon as the wave C “thrust” out of the triangle is complete (starting April 19 in Silver, and May 1 in Gold), precious metals should rally, likely retracing at least most of the entire March-thru-present downward movement. A rally would surprise here, since the long-equity pundits have been quite busy jawboning metals to the downside, likely causing sentiment to become overly bearish. Targets for both the main and alternate counts are shown on the charts. Both the main and alternate expect similar behavior: a little bit more downward action, followed by a relief rally.

As a quick update on my last post regarding the British Pound, the April 30 high appears now to be the end of wave E black, and the choppy overlapping downward movement that followed was likely a leading expanding diagonal that ended on May 9. The burning question now is whether or not the quick abc rally through May 10 is the extent of wave 2, or if wave 2 will “extend” for several more days as an expanded or running flat before wave 3 to the downside commences. While both wave counts are legitimate, based on the tendency for leading diagonals to be deeply retraced, as well as European stocks appearing to have just started a larger bounce, my main count for the Pound moving forward is that an expanded or running flat for wave 2 pink is most likely incomplete. The week may start with a day of downward movement to complete wave B, but then, if my wave count is correct, should be followed by a surprise rally back toward 1.62. The wave 3 down after that is likely to be a doozy . .

I also have updated wave counts on the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, Russell, and many other items, all of which will be revealed and explained thoroughly in my weekend webinar, Here’s how to gain access . .

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

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