Here’s a quick update on the GBP/USD currency pair. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.
It looks like cable is carving out an expanded flat for wave 2 green, which will delay the resumption of strong downward movement for a couple of days. Explanations and invalidation points are on the chart.
Sid
Elliott Wave Analysis of the GBP/USD (British Pound) Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts twice to enlarge.
It is difficult to imagine a more bearish Elliott Wave scenario for the British Pound right now. The same goes for the Euro. The charts speak for themselves. The ramifications of the strengthening dollar will play out in virtually every tradable instrument. For a complete explanation of my long, intermediate, and short-term wave counts and targets for the world’s major stock markets, commodities and currencies, please join me for my weekly webinar. Here’s how to enroll. All enrollees will receive access to a recording of the webinar immediately afterwards, whether in attendance live or not.
Sid
Elliott Wave Analysis of the GBP/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts twice to enlarge.
The British Pound appears likely to be making one last push to the upside. The target zone for the end of the rally that started in mid-January is essentially between 1.625 and 1.63. Once an upward impulse from today’s low of 1.60661 is complete, if my long held wave count of a 3-year-long triangle is correct, a downward thrust will ensue, with a preliminary downside target of about 1.267. It is worth noting that the GBP is notorious for truncated 5th waves, so the orthodox end of the upward structure could fall short of the April 30 (wave 3 green) high of 1.6301. Invalidation of the triangle concept is at 1.67460, and if my 180 minute wave count is correct, movement below 1.59848 will confirm the trend change.
As described in my last post regarding the USD/JPY pair, I closed all long positions last night at 79.5 for a net gain of 240 pips, and also took profit this morning on my Euro short with a gain of 250 pips. Obviously, I could have made a lot more on the Yen trade by exiting back in late March, but wanted to stay in position to take advantage of any additional Central Bank intervention. I’m now expecting a bounce in US equities (but not to new highs), while the Euro should recover a bit here as well. I’ll be looking for the proper vehicles to use to get long the US dollar again within the next few days, and will post according (time-permitting), and will describe in detail during this weekend’s live webinar.
Elliott Wave Analysis of the GBP/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.
The British Pound (vs. the US Dollar) has carved out what appears to be a completed expanded flat for wave 2 black, where wave B blue was 1.382 times the length wave A blue traveled, and the extreme of wave C blue, if it has concluded, ended at 1.618 times the length wave A blue was. (On the chart it says C = “B” * 1.618, which is a typo).
These Fibonacci ratios are absolutely textbook proportions within a completed expanded flat, leading me to believe that strong downward movement may be about to resume.