Elliott Wave Predictions

Elliott Wave Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

The Dow hit my triangle thrust target of 15261.35 today, and while Elliott Wave thrust-from-triangle targets are guidelines and not rules, the market is respecting the level so far. The upward movement in the Dow can be counted as complete. Other US indices sporting thrusts from intermediate degree wave B triangles are: 1) the SPX (thrust target 1684.1 – not hit yet), and 2) the ES Futures Contract (thrust target 1661.25 – not hit yet, but very, very close today @ 1659.75). The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 did not form wave B black triangles during the second half of last year, but both appear to need a pink wave 4 and 5 to finish their respective up-trends.

Sid
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Elliott Wave Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.  Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

Since the summer of 2011, I’ve been showing a main count in the US stock indices sporting a 5-wave impulse up from the March 2009 low through July 7, 2011, followed by a Primary wave A lasting 3 months through October 4 2011.  However, the Primary wave B that followed has lasted 16 months.  Because of the outsized burgundy B in relation to Burgundy A, I’ve decided to discard that count in favor of the alternate count shown in this post.  Both have had a similar expectation, supported by a significant characteristic of upward large-degree B waves: overlapping price action on diminishing volume.

This new main count expects that all of the upward movement since March 2009 is a wave B, but at one degree larger in trend:  Cycle degree.  This wave count expects that cycle degree (teal) B either ended on February 19, or has one more slight high (or truncated 5th wave) left to go.  Either way, a new substantial downtrend would be confirmed with movement below 13350.96.

Meanwhile, the dollar is rallying as expected, and commodities are falling, in keeping with the wave counts shown in recent weekend “Counts” webinars and EWP ScreenShots.

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