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Aug 122015
 

The video clip below contains highlights from my Weekly “Counts” webinar from three days ago (August 9, 2015).  Included are portions of my analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial average, GDX, and the US Dollar Index.  ALL of the calls in this video were contrarian against the so-called “consensus trades”, like long dollar, and short gold and the miners.  Maybe that’s why they worked so well.  (-:

Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterwards, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service provides updated multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable over the years.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com

Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 US Dollar Index  Comments Off on Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Jan 052015
 

Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.  Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

US$ DX monthly 1-5-15

US$ DX weekly 1-5-15

US$ DX daily 1-5-15

Using a combination of Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle analysis sometimes provides expectations that are not widely accepted.  For instance, if my interpretation of the narrowing sideways chop in the US Dollar Index from January 2012 through July 2014 is correct as an Elliott Wave triangle, the strong, relentless upshot in the US Dollar over the past 6 months is a terminal thrust.  Thrusts from triangles are almost always destined to be completely retraced.  To say that this view is not widely held at this juncture is an understatement!  The financial media has propped up one talking head after another for months on end now, almost all jawboning about how to best position portfolios for a relentlessly strengthening dollar.  The attached charts show that based on my unique form of technical analysis (combining Elliott Wave with Hurst cycle analysis), I cannot agree with that expectation, especially now that the thrust from the triangle is nearing several important targets.

Elliott Wave includes a method for estimating how long the thrust from a triangle will be.   I’ve shown that methodology on the attached weekly chart.  Notice that the triangle boundary line connecting pink waves A and C of the triangle is extended backward, as is the line connecting waves B and C (pink) of the triangle.  Then, at the start of wave A (pink) of the triangle, I’ve measured the distance between those two lines as 1284 ticks (shown in red on the chart).  1284 ticks is the expected distance that the thrust from the triangle will travel.  (This technique has produced amazingly accurate results many, many times, although it is not considered an Elliott Wave rule.)   I made a copy of the 1284-tick measuring tool, and placed it at the end of the triangle., starting at the blue B (pink e), end-of-triangle low.  This leaves a thrust target in the US Dollar Index of about 92.58 (shown best on the attached daily chart).

There are two additional price targets very near the 92.58 thrust target.  One is at 92.63, the extreme of wave 4 at one lesser degree.  (In this case, the November 2005 high, as shown on the monthly chart).  Also, within the thrust from the triangle (starting July 1, 2014), there are 5 clear internal waves (1 through 5 pink).  Many times, wave 5 within a thrust from a triangle is extended, and extended 5th waves are most often equal to the net traveled by waves 1 though 3.  Pink wave 5 equaled the net traveled by pink waves 1 though 3 at 91.48.  That target was reached today.

Additional evidence of an imminent top in the U.S. Dollar is provided by Hurst cycle analysis via Sentient Trader software.  Utilizing an analysis commencing at the November 2005 high, the current 21.1-week cycle was due to crest (top out) between Nov 24 and Dec 30.  We are just slightly past that expected topping window now.  Also, today’s price action featured an  opening gap higher, followed by a strong upward continuation, but then an equally strong retracement back to the opening level.  On the daily chart, this created a long-wick doji candle.  Hmmm . .

Sid Norris
ElliottWavePredictions.com
ElevenQuarterStocks.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of the US Dollar Index ($DX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 US Dollar Index  Comments Off on Elliott Wave Analysis of the US Dollar Index ($DX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
May 052012
 

Elliott Wave Analysis of the US Dollar Index ($DX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

Here is my main wave count for the US Dollar Index ($DX). As expected in my last US$ post on April 4, choppy, corrective downward movement continued in the Dollar, but appears to have ended May 1, and a significant trend change to the upside appears most likely to have begun. On intraday charts, a small-degree 5-wave impulse to the upside from the May 1 low is clearly visible. Also, a complete WXY correction (from Jan 13 thru May 1) appears to count as complete, with pink wave c within blue wave Y forming a ending contracting diagonal, which has been almost completely retraced. Upward movement from May 1 is certainly impulsive (aggressive) in character, supporting my main expectation that a bullish wave 3 (black-intermediate) to the upside has just begun. Invalidation and confirmation points are shown on the chart.

If this wave count is correct, the implications are quite significant, as it will be very difficult for equities and commodities to continue to rally further when being priced in increasingly more expensive dollars. My wave counts in virtually every world stock market, commodity, and currency are in alignment with this wave count, with a trend change either having just started, or due to commence shortly.

For complete information regarding my Elliott Wave counts and price targets for many of the world’s major stock markets, commodities and currencies, please join me for my “live” weekend webinar. All enrollees will receive access to a recording of the webinar immediately afterwards, whether in attendance “live” or not. Here’s more information, including how to enroll, featuring a new pricing option that allows annual subscribers to receive access to all of my weekly “Sid’s Current Wave Counts” webinars at a substantial discount, if not completely FREE (after rebates from my broker, TradeStation Securities).

Sid
http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com

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