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Feb 162012
 

USDJPY 12h 2 16 12 1024x476 Recap of the last two Weekend Counts Webinars by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

Here are a few of the predictions and observations presented druring  my last two live Sunday webinars (Feb 5 & 12):

1)  I’ve been pounding the table the last two webinars that the best opportunity at the moment right now was in currencies, because of a technical expectation of renewed US Dollar strength.  Of the major currency pairs, I felt that the USD/JPY pair was the best opportunity, and revealed an expectation for the pair to establish a new long-term uptrend.  The pair had retraced once again back down into the same 75.5 – 77 zone where the Bank of Japan had intervened on at least three occassions over the past year to aggressively push the pair upwards.  I personally took a long position at 76.2, and am currently 340 pips into profit.  

2)  Additionally, based on the Elliott Wave Count and other indicators as well as a fundamental expectation for resumed US Dollar strength, I stated that Precious Metals were due for a  period of weakness.  This idea turned out to be very slow to gain momentum, but there has been a bit of downward movement. However, the down move so far has been choppy, so caution is warranted, especially with the money printing contest going on between Central Banks worldwide.   

3) I felt that the recent aggressive up move in Copper was a terminal thrust out of a triangle, and would likely be completely retraced.  Since that call, Copper is down over 5%.

4)  Also, I explained that although a downturn was overdue in US equities, shorting these indices had been a losing proposition ever since the flash crash, and that less risky opportunities were available rather than trying over and over to short US equities, as many followers of mainstream Elliott Wave theory appear to be obsessed with doing.  (As a former obsessee, I speak from experience.)

There are always many other additional concepts revealed, including my main and alternate, long, intermediate, and short-term Elliott Wave counts, and Fibonacci targets for the world’s major stock markets, commodities, and currencies.  So, while my free-access-posts on this site have been primarily related to the S&P-500 and Dow Industrials, it is during my 2-3 hour live (and recorded) webinars where a much fuller picture and best resulting ideas are revealed.  Please consider joining me for the next webinar. Here’s how. All enrollees will automatically receive access to the recording immediately afterwards, whether in attendance live or not.

Thanks,

Sid

Jan 232012
 

SPX 60m 1 23 121 1024x576 Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P 500 (SPX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P-500 (SPX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

The Nasdaq-100 (NDX) index took out its 2011 highs late last week already, and the Dow Industrials moved a tick above its July 7 2011 high today, confirming in my mind that there was, in fact, 5 waves up from the March 2009 low through the July 7 2011 high, and that since then we are most likely seeing an expanding or running flat for cycle (teal) wave 2 in several of the US equity indices. This would allow for a new high above the 2011 highs for burgundy B, but requires initially (for the lagging S&P-500) that Burgundy Wave B retrace at least 90% of what must have been an ABC move down from July 7 thru Oct 4. This means that in order to follow suit with the Nasdaq and Dow, the SPX must reach at least 1328.31, and I think now that it will within a few days, but not in a straight line. Over the next two days (thru Wed 1-25) we are likely to see a mild choppy down move for wave 4 green, and then wave 5 green to the upside may manage to endure through the end of the month (Jan 31), reaching the aformentioned minimum target of 1328.31, or slightly higher. Based on the highly extreme current bullish sentiment, and some Fibonacci turn dates just ahead (1-25 and 1-31), along with a more-than-stretched-out MACD divergence condition (see chart), and a VIX sell signal at the NY close today, I still think we are within a very few days of the start of a significant move to the downside, likely eventually testing the the late November low of 1158 at a minimum, thereby potentially completing Primary (burgundy) wave C of a running flat for Cycle (teal) wave 2.

The best alternate count now is that March 2009 thru July 7 2011 was Cycle wave 1 (teal), followed by a wave 2 teal that was unusually brief and shallow through Oct 4, and since then we have a very bullish 1-2-1-2, which would likely take the SPX to 2190 within the next 2-3 years. (2190 is where wave 3 teal would equal 1.618 times the length wave 1 teal was). However, this would mean that starting Dec 19, the SPX would be in wave 3 of 3 of 3 to the upside, which according to R.N. Elliott, should be confirmed by an accompanying strong uptick in volume. Quite to the contrary, the move up since December 19 has melted upward on low volume. This is the biggest reason why an ultra bullish 1-2-1-2-1-2 scenario since March 2009 is ranked as my alternate count at this time, and not the main.

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

Jan 172012
 

DJIA 30m 1 17 12 1024x576 Elliott Wave Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

Wave C blue continues upward, with virtually all of the upward movement over the last 3 weeks created during three overnight sessions. As shown on the chart, the US equity markets have now reached a duration target zone where a turn is likely, based on Fibonacci relationships with recent significant highs and lows . .

Sid

http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

Dec 302011
 

SPX 60m 12 30 11 1024x576 Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P 500 (SPX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P-500 (SPX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

This last push to the upside appears to be pointing to 1279 on January 3rd/4th, needing only to complete wave 5 pink to the upside, as shown. If this count is correct, the high for 2012 in equities will occur within the first trading week of the year. Please notice that wave 3 pink is shorter than wave 1, so wave 5 cannot be longer than wave 3 was. This creates a maximum for this rally at 1288.50. Also, 60 minute MACD divergence seems to be setting up nicely.

There are alternate wave counts to be sure, the most plausible of which are listed on the chart. For a complete explanation of my long, intermediate, and short term wave counts for the world’s major stock markets, commodities, and currencies, please join me for my weekend “Counts” webinar. If you cannot attend “live”, you’ll automatically receive access to a streaming video recording or it immediately afterwards. Here’s more information, including how to enroll . .

I hope everyone had an enjoyable holiday season. Happy New Year!

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

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