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Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P-500 ES futures contract by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.
The most recent whipsaw may be complete, and I think the S&P is getting close to starting into a move back to the bottom of the recent range. The fact that a large WXY combination correction can count as complete, (or nearly so), leaves those holding long equity positions in a high risk situation at this time, in my opinion.
Quick Update on the S&P-500 emini (ES contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge . .
Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P-500 e-mini futures contract (ES) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.
Based on the Euro possibly being overdue for a relief rally, as well as what counts best (at least in the contract, which isn’t as reliable as the index) as 5 waves up in the S&P starting Tuesday, the alternate count depicted above must be considered, although my main count (shown in the Sept 2 post) is continuing to hold up well.
Please join me for my Sunday, 2-hour “Sid’s Current Elliott Wave Counts and Projections for the Major World Stock Markets, Currencies, and Commodities” webinar, or view a recording of it afterwards. Here’s how . .
Also, if you’d like to understand more about the how I integrate traditional technical indicators with Elliott Wave, consider accessing the 2-hour recorded educational webinar entitled “Early Detection of Trend Changes Using a Combination of Elliott Wave, MACD, and Japanese Candlesticks”. Here’s more about that . .
Thanks,
Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com
Note added after sleeping a few hours: The Euro broke though my technical level overnight of 1.38 (during the London session . . overnight in the US), and is now, in my opinion, in wave 3 blue of wave 3 black, and is continuing to move downward impressively, as it should if that count is correct. This adds additional weight to my main SPX wave count (last presented in the Sept 2 post), and lessens the likelihood of the altenate view shown earlier in this post. Invalidation (Euro) is now at the wave 2 blue high of 1.415.
Quick Update on the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA (YM Futures Contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.
The trading week started with a gap lower, followed by choppy upward movement. We now have what easily could be interpreted as a completed 5th wave, supported by MACD divergence between the 3rd and 5th waves, not only on a 360 minute chart (shown), but on charts as long as daily. Also, on a weekly chart, the slightest bit of further downward movement will solidify a large MACD double divergence that started back in mid-February. So, even though I’m still classifying this count as alternate #1, there is strong evidence forming that it may be correct.
Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com
Note Added on August 9, 2011: Eleven minutes after publishing this post, the Dow opened at 12,592, and immediately started dropping at at record pace, finally pausing at 10,810 after only ten trading days . . a drop of 1782 points, or 14.2%! The lesson I’ll take away from this historic post: The combination of a strong, MACD supported Elliott Wave perspective, (knowing that the top was either already “in”, or very nearly so), and the appearance of crystal clear MACD divergence, not only on the key 180-360 minute charts, but following though onto the daily chart, made for a very timely signal of imminent major trend change.