You are here: Home » Archives for Euro

Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from

 EUR/USD  Comments Off on Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from
May 192015

Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from  Click on the charts to enlarge.

There appears to be quite a debate going on these days about whether the Euro is finished going down or not.  In my opinion, a combination of Elliott Wave and Hurst cycle analysis suggests that the March low is, in fact, a major bottom in the Euro.  Here’s why . .

EURUSD weekly 5-19-15

As shown in the weekly chart above, the triangle that started in the EUR/USD currency pair back in October of 2008 lasted over five years, finally ending in May 2014.  Triangles are followed by terminal thrusts.  So far the downward thrust has carved out three waves down.  Many are still expecting a 5th wave, but I don’t think that’s going to happen for several reasons:

  • The initial drop from the July 2008 all-time high through October 2008 was a “three” (in the form of a zigzag).   This is why I’ve labeled the October 2008 low as a primary (burgundy) degree wave W.  If that interpretation is correct, the multi-year triangle that followed was an X-wave triangle, and the downward terminal thrust out of that triangle was a burgundy wave Y.  Y waves are “threes”, not “fives”.
  • Utilizing R. N. Elliott’s triangle measurement technique, the measured target for the end of the thrust from the multi-year triangle in the Euro was 1.04470.  ( I was able to finalize that target back in July 2014, when the Euro broke down out of the blue trend channel).  In March of this year, the Euro started a substantial reversal at just 15 pips shy of that target.  The thrust target has essentially already been reached.
  • Hurst cycle analysis is considering the March low a 4.5-year cycle trough.  This suggests that a multi-year uptrend in the Euro has already commenced.
  • Thrusts from triangles are generally relentless, typically racing within a narrow channel, or in parabolic fashion until abruptly ending.   The 1005 pip bounce since the March 13 low in the Euro simply does not fit well within an expectation for a downside thrust continuation from the May 2014 top.

EURUSD daily 5-19-15

Moving on to the daily chart (above), examination of the internal wave structure within Burgundy wave Y shows the completed black ABC zigzag structure.  Within both black wave A and black C, there was blue 3-5 MACD divergence.  Also, the final capitulation into the March 13 low was a terminal thrust from a blue wave 4 triangle.  Importantly, wave C black was slightly shorter than 1.382 times the length of wave A black, once again suggesting that the entire drop from May 8 2014 through March 13 2015 was an ABC, and not a 123.  (Wave 3’s are typically 1.618 times the length of wave 1’s, or longer).

EURUSD 240m 5-19-15

Finally, upon examination of the 240-minute chart (above) , if a major trend change has occurred, we would expect a 5-wave structure to the upside to support the idea.  So far, we’ve seen a blue wave 1 in the form of a contracting leading diagonal followed a characteristically deep blue wave 2.  Then, wave 3 blue ended within just 8 pips of being 1.618 times the length of wave 1, a very typical relationship of wave 3 to wave 1.  Now, it appears that blue wave 4 is underway, if not already finished.  Wave 4’s most often retrace wave 3’s by a Fibonacci .382 relationship, so a good target for the end of blue wave 4 is 1.11052, which is only 53 pips above blue 4 invalidation at 1.10519.  Wave 4 appears so far to have completed a pink ABC corrective structure to the downside, with wave C only slightly longer than wave A was.  It is also possible that blue wave 4 will carve out a longer lasting triangle, as long as the pair stays above blue 4 invalidation (1.10519).

If the Euro continues lower than blue 4 invalidation, the April low of 1.05203 would then become invalidation, as my alternate count would become the main.  That alternate would expect that a nested bullish 1-2-1-2 is underway starting from the March low.

Sid Norris

Thoughts on the USD/CHF currency pair by Sid from

 USD/CHF  Comments Off on Thoughts on the USD/CHF currency pair by Sid from
Jan 172015

Thoughts on the USD/CHF currency pair by Sid from Cick on the chart to enlarge . .

This the USD/CHF exact chart and wave count I showed in last week’s “Counts” webinar.

USDCHF daily 1-16-15

None of the annotations on the chart have been changed since before the surprise announcement from the Swiss National Bank.  Suffice it to say, if a trader had been trading my wave count, they would have been on the right side of this move.  I guess price moved to my targets several months quicker than I thought it would, huh? . . LOL . .

Seriously, I do think its worth noting that this particular instance of central bank “manipulation” is completely different than all the others we’ve been seeing in recent years.  That’s because this one was caused by the REMOVAL of manipulative practices.  Let’s hope for more “REMOVALS” in the near future.   Could the ECB be next?  Why would they blow up their balance sheet now that the Euro has nearly reached parity with the US$?  I therefore think there’s a pretty good chance that on January 22, Draghi continues to aggressively jawbone (threatens to act), but does not substantially deliver a solid date and amount that they will print.  And even if they did announce a date and an aggressive amount, what would stop them from pulling the plug on the idea later, having never actually re-initiated printing at all?


Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from

 EUR/USD  Comments Off on Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from
Feb 122014

EURUSD weekly 2-12-14 new idea

Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from  Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

The “Teflon Euro” has stayed amazingly resilient for a full year now after the initial calls for the end of a multi-year triangle emerged in February 2013.  The above wave count shows that the Euro may have one more trick up its sleeve before finally succumbing to the likely downward thrust from that triangle.

Some  have given up on the triangle idea altogether, and others are looking for an eventual upward thrust from the over 5-year old triangle.  Of all of the interpretations, I still think that wave E of the triangle is either complete, (ending at the late December 1.3893 high), or, as this chart depicts, has yet to finish, with one more spectacular stop-hunt left in the tank as a diabolical parting gift for all the eager Euro bears.

The best reason for the existence of the wave count shown above is that wave D (black) of the triangle was “complex”.  It was a WXY double zigzag.  According to the blue book (Frost & Prechter), only one leg of a triangle can be “complex”, and if it is, its likely to be a double zigzag. Also, according to the book, the most likely leg of a triangle to be complex is the “D” wave.  The fact that the D wave (as labeled) is “complex” supports the expectation that when this 5+year-long triangle finally does conclude, the resulting large terminal thrust will be to the downside.

Also, since wave D (black) was complex, and only one leg of a triangle is allowed to be complex, wave E must be a standard (blue) ABC zigzag, subdividing 5-3-5.  This has been difficult for me to accept because the blue wave A (within black wave E) looks very much like a “three”, and the pink wave 4 within the blue wave C (underway now?) appears, upon first glance, to have potentially overlapped into the price territory of wave 1 (pink).  So admittedly, the forcing of the labels into the shown positions has been somewhat sickening, but there may be a development underway now that supports this count:  Wave 4 pink may be carving out a triangle.

This would be a very fitting ending scenario for the 5+year-old triangle, as the next fairly large move to occur would be a (pink 5) terminal thrust to the upside, taking out a metric butt-ton of stops. THEN, the much larger thrust to the downside would ensue. Traders would be ripped to shreds in both directions. Ultimately, this is what the “market” lives for: taking out stops . . and as many and as often as possible.

One last bit of supporting technical evidence for the above wave count is that it would allow Burgundy (Primary) wave “B” to retrace Burgundy wave “A” into the very most typical .5 to .618 Fibonacci retracement area (1.4173 – 14609).

I’m not saying this is my main count yet, but the price action in the British Pound, the Euro, the Swiss Franc, and the US$ Index in the past twenty-four hours is certainly suggesting it.  The next few days will be very important.  Any movement below 1.3205, and the pink 4 triangle idea is invalidated.  On the other hand, any movement above 1.3893, and obviously, the 5+year-old triangle isn’t over yet, and if the character of the upward movement is quite aggressive, the count shown here will become my main.


Content Protected Using Blog Protector By: PcDrome. & GeekyCube.

We should stay in touch!

Register to automatically receive email notification of important new market analysis from Sid.  Register now and we'll send you FREE access to Sid's newest educational video: "Introduction to How I Combine Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis".

You have Successfully Subscribed!