All commentary is on the chart . .
Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.
If the Euro starts rallying by tomorrow, I think the Elliott Wave count depicted in the chart above is correct. Typically, in an expanding ending diagonal, wave 5 terminates just before reaching a trend line extending from the extremes of waves 1 and 3. Also, in an expanding ending diagonal, wave 5 is longer than wave 3, wave 3 is longer than wave 1, and wave 4 is longer than wave 2. Finally, each wave is a zigzag or zigzag combination. All those rules have been met.
If the Euro continues aggressively downward, the alternate count shown on the chart is preferred, with wave 3 blue already underway after an anemic wave 2 blue. If wave 3 blue is underway, equities will have a hard time doing anything but go down . .
My latest count idea for Gold is that its possibly in a leading expanding diagonal to the downside. The initial downward move from the Decmber 7 historic high through December 16 consists of 3 waves. Also, the upward price action from the January 28 low is choppy, overlapping, and generally corrective in character. These two clues led me to search the Elliott database for a structure that would fit. Enter the Expanding Leading Diagonal, which, in this case, would be a yet incomplete, large, five-wave bearish but overlapping structure, where each leg may consist of 3 subwaves. Expanding leading diagonals are relatively rare, so I consider this count to be a stretch, at best . .
Another possible scenario for Gold is a corrective double combination, in which case we’ve already had a 3-wave move to the downside, and are now in the X wave up, soon to be followed by another 3-wave downside move. Either way, at this juncture, it looks like gold isn’t going to rally to new highs until much later in the year at the earliest. The choppy, overlapping upward movement right now just doesn’t support any kind of immediately bullish count . .