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Sid’s latest call is working well! (Long Crude Oil out of a 20-week Hurst cycle trough, from a major Fibonacci target)

 Crude Oil  Comments Off on Sid’s latest call is working well! (Long Crude Oil out of a 20-week Hurst cycle trough, from a major Fibonacci target)
Aug 192016
 

Following a highly successful long gold (and gold miners) call in late May, and then a call for a good-sized rally in US equities out of the post-Brexit vote low in late June, Sid Norris from ElliottWavePredictions.com suggested to paid subscribers that crude oil was due for a large bounce starting as early as late July.  That trade is also working very well, and subscribers are once again benefiting greatly from trading based on Sid’s unique method of combining Elliott wave and Hurst cycle analysis.

Here are a few of the actual screenshots Sid sent out to paid subscribers.  First the 240-minute chart of the QM futures contract on Wednesday, July 27:

Oil 240m 7-27-16

Then, the 240-minute chart of the QM contract on Sunday, July 31:

Oil QM 240m 7-31-16

Then the 240-minute chart of QM on Wednesday, August 3:

Oil QM 240m 8-3-16

And the 240-minute chart from Sunday August 7:

Oil QM 240m 8-7-16

and the 240-minute chart from Wednesday, August 10:

Oil QM 240m 8-10-16

and from Sunday, August 14:

Oil QM 240m 8-14-16

and finally, from Wednesday, August 17:

Oil QM 240m 8-17-16

Crude Oil closed today (August 19) at $49.050, up over 23% in just three weeks!

Each weekend edition of EWP ScreenShots includes weekly, daily, 240-minute, and 60 or 90-minute charts of Oil.  The mid-week editions include updated 240-minite and 60 or 90-minute charts.

Once again, the combination of Elliott Wave and its associated Fibonacci price targets and Hurst cycle analysis has proved its worth.  Notice the Fibonacci target (@ $39.525) where blue C would equal blue A times 1.618.  That target is shown back on the July 27 chart.  Oil (QM) bottomed on August 2, at $39.25.  Also, notice the Hurst 20-week cycle trough window shown in green on every chart above.  20-week cycles troughs are imminently tradeable.  Just recently, the large, late May bounce in Gold was out of a 20-week cycle trough, and the large bounce in US equities starting in late June was also out of a 20-week cycle trough.

Note from Sid:  Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterward, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service provides updated multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable.  — Sid

Elliott Wave Analysis of 30-Year Treasury Bonds (ZB futures contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 T-Bonds 30yr  Comments Off on Elliott Wave Analysis of 30-Year Treasury Bonds (ZB futures contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Apr 202015
 

Elliott Wave Analysis of 30-Year Treasury Bonds (ZB futures contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.  Click on the charts to enlarge.

Taking a short break from the stock market, here’s my current technical analysis of the ZB futures contract (30-year bonds).

30-yr bonds monthly 4-19-15 bonus chart

As shown in the lower left corner of the monthly chart above, the last large-degree bottom in 30-year bonds (and top in yields) was in October 1981.  Bonds have a long history of moving in 30-year cycles, so the 30-year top was roughly due in late 2011.  However, cycles are elastic, as the top in this one appears to be running 4 to 5 years late.  The end of the cycle is likely nearing fairly quickly though, because the MACD indicator appears to be forming a very large divergence on the monthly chart.

30-yr T-Bonds weekly 4-20-15

On the weekly chart (above), the ZB contract simply needs 5 complete (black/intermediate) waves to the upside from the June 2007 low to end the cycle.  Wave 1 (black) was a leading expanding diagonal, topping in December 2008.  Black wave 2 deeply retraced black wave 1 in the form of a zigzag, ending just slightly beyond a very common .618 retracement of black wave 1.  Black wave 3 ended in July 2012,  and was rather short as wave 3’s go, at only 1.327 times the length that wave 1 was.  Wave 3’s that are shorter than 1.618 times wave 1’s are typically followed by rather long wave 5’s.

That was followed by wave 4 (black), which concluded in September 2013, having retraced a perfect and highly common Fibonacci .382 of wave 3 (black).  Black wave 5 has been underway ever since.  As I mentioned before, with a shorter-than-normal wave 3 (black) in the books, we should be looking for a fairly long wave 5.  I believe the most likely target for the end of wave 5 black is where it will equal the net traveled by black waves 1 though 3 times .618.  That target is shown on the chart at 179^15.  That target is very close to another common Fibonacci target based on prior waves at one larger degree.  Burgundy (Primary) wave 5 will equal the net traveled  by burgundy waves 1 through 3 times .618 at 181^09.  The close proximity of these two targets supports the prediction that 30-year bonds will eventually top in the 179-181 area.

30-yr T-bonds daily 4-20-15

Finally, as shown on the daily chart above, there are several clues that indicate that 30-yr bonds haven’t topped yet.  Ultimately, up from the end of black wave 4 in September 2013, we need to see 5 blue (minor) waves up.  So far, we’ve seen blue wave 1 (October 2013), blue wave 2 (December 2013).  That much is easy.  But then I’m labeling the February 2 2015 top as blue wave 3, with blue wave 4 underway now, and blue wave 5 yet to come.  Some might think that blue wave 3 ended on October 15, 2014, and therefore blue wave 5 (and the end of the 30-year cycle) ending on February 2, 2015.  I don’t think so.  Here’s a few reasons why:

  • The internal subdivisions between December 2013 and February 2015 make more sense as 5 pink (minute) waves.  I especially like the spike into October 15 2014 as wave 5 of a small-degree (green/minuette) expanding ending diagonal.
  • Every blue (minor) wave going back over 30 years is easily visible on a monthly chart.  If blue 3 ended in October 2014 and blue 4 in November 2014, they would not be discernible on a monthly chart.
  • The drop from February 2 2015 through March 6 2015 counts best as a simple green abc zigzag.  It is therefore unlikely that it was wave 1 within a new trend to the downside.
  • Blue wave 2 (Dec 2013) appears to count best as a deep, fairly brief double zigzag, so based on the guideline of alternation, wave 4 is likely to be a longer lasting, fairly shallow “flat” or “triangle” with a new price extreme inside of it.  Based on price action so far, an expanded flat seems most likely.
  • Hurst Cycle analysis is expecting an 18-month cycle trough in August 2015.  Based on the early scope and dimension of the incomplete blue wave 4, an August low would fit well as the projected end for blue wave 4.

Please join me for my next weekly “Counts” webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stock markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds. Hurst cycle analysis is considered on virtually all items. A recording of the webinar is provided to all subscribers, whether in attendance “live” or not. In addition, all “Counts” webinar subscribers receive my Sunday and Wednesday EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus!

Many traders find my work extremely helpful in their trading! Here are just a few of the testimonials from those traders/investors.

Sid

Elliott Wave, Hurst Cycles and Fibonacci Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 Dow Jones Industrial Average  Comments Off on Elliott Wave, Hurst Cycles and Fibonacci Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Sep 252014
 

Elliott Wave, Hurst Cycles and Fibonacci Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on each chart to enlarge.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down only 2.33% since the Friday September 19 all-time high, but Hurst cycle analysis is already suggesting that a major top is “in”. As I described in my last free post about the DJIA, I base all U.S. stock market cyclic conclusions on Sentient Trader Hurst Cycle analysis starting at the Y2K high, as I believe that to be the last significant turning point in the underlying “character” and “pace” of the U.S. stock market.

As of the close today (9/25/2014), an up-to-date Hurst analysis indicates that the 4.5-yr cycle crested in June, and the 18-month cycle crested in May. The 40-week cycle is due to crest on about October 23, but the 20-week cycle, 80-day, and 40-day cycles all crested within the last few days. So, of the six largest cycles that Sentient Trader software can deduce based on a 14-year price history (2000-2014), five are now pressuring price to the downside. This condition appears to be overwhelming the only remaining larger cycle yet to crest, the 40-week. We therefore are very likely to have seen a major top in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on September 19, in my opinion.

From an Elliott Wave standpoint, all of the required subdivisions of an ending contracting diagonal completed on September 19, which, in textbook fashion, concluded with a very slight throw-over of the upper diagonal trendline.

As for Fibonacci price targets, there were a number of significant, large degree targets from 16,690 to 17,455, as shown on the daily chart below. The September 19 top tick of 17,350.64 occurred inside that Fibonacci target cluster.

DJIA weekly 9-25-14

DJIA daily 9-25-14

DJIA 240m 9-25-14

DJIA daily Hurst 9-25-14

The last chart above is a screenshot of the Hurst Cycle Analysis, as performed by Sentient Trader software, after the close of the market today, September 25, 2014.

One last note: Just because the Dow Jones Industrial Average appears to have finished a terminal upside pattern does not mean that every U.S. and European stock index has put in their respective tops. And many of the Asian indices do not appear to have put in their highs for the year yet. For the complete picture, please join me for my weekend “Counts” webinar, where I show all of my Elliott wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’ major stock markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds. Hurst cycle analysis is always considered.

Sid
http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com
http://ElevenQuarterStocks.com

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