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Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA (Gold & Silver Stocks) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 Gold, Individual Stocks, Miners, Silver  Comments Off on Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA (Gold & Silver Stocks) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Jul 022015
 

Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA (Gold & Silver Stocks) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.  Click on the charts to enlarge.

From Yahoo Finance:  “ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited is ASA a self management investment trust. The firm invests in the public equity markets across the globe. It primarily invests in stocks of companies engaged in the exploration, mining or processing of gold, silver, platinum, diamonds, or other precious minerals. ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited was founded in 1958 and is based in San Mateo, California.”

ASA weekly 7-2-15

For decades, professional money managers have used ASA as a proxy for the entire precious metals sector.  From an Elliott Wave perspective, ASA (as well as a large number of precious metals stocks and ETF’s for that matter) appears to be in the very late stages of completing a large expanded flat structure that commenced in March 2008.  Expanded flats are ABC structures that subdivide 3-3-5.

Wave A’s of expanded flats must internally subdivide as a “three”, and the downward movement from March through October 2008 appears to easily meet that requirement.  Wave B’s of expanded flats are also “threes”, and most often retrace wave A by 123.6% to 138.2%.  In this case, primary wave B (burgundy) retraced wave A by factor of 1.236.  It also subdivided as an ABC structure.  Textbook.

Primary degree wave C (burgundy) of the expanded flat has been underway since December 2010, and needs to complete five intermediate (black) waves down.  Wave C’s of expanded flats internally subdivide as a “five”, and end beyond the extreme of wave A.  Downward movement since December 2010 in ASA easily counts as a five-wave non-overlapping impulse, and has already moved below its October 2008 low of $10.34, so the overall scope and shape of the expanded flat on a weekly chart (above) has appeared complete since December 2014.

ASA daily 7-2-15

However, as we zoom in on the most recent price action on a daily chart (above), despite the  appearance (at the time) of a completed black wave five on December 16, 2014, followed by five waves up into January 20, 2015, ASA made a new low yesterday.  So what’s going on?

In my opinion, the five waves up into January was wave C of an expanded flat for blue wave four.  Then, starting at the January 20 high, blue wave five in ASA is likely carving out a contracting ending diagonal.  Internal subdivisions since the end of blue wave 4 have been somewhat ambiguous, which fits well with the diagonal interpretation, as each leg of a diagonal is typically a corrective ABC.  Because Hurst cycle analysis is expecting that a 20-week cycle trough is a bit overdue, and based on the Fibonacci targets shown on the chart, it appears that ASA is bottoming in pink wave 3 of the contracting ending diagonal now, with pink wave 4 due next, likely moving price up into late August.  Then, if this interpretation is correct, there will be a final pink wave 5 to the downside, ending in about September/October 2015.  $8.94 is a solid target for the end of the diagonal later this year, as that is where blue wave five will be .618 times the net traveled of blue waves one through three.

In contracting ending diagonals, wave three must be shorter than wave one was, so if ASA is putting in its pink wave three bottom about now, price cannot move below $9.03.  Then, wave four (pink) cannot be longer than wave two pink was, followed by a wave five that is shorter than wave three was.  It should be noted that wave fives’s of ending diagonals can also truncate.  Each (pink) leg of the diagonal should subdivide internally as a green abc zigzag.

Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterwards, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service shows multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable over the years.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold (XK futures contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 Gold  Comments Off on Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold (XK futures contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Mar 062015
 

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold (XK futures contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts to enlarge.

As many who follow my work know, I’ve been singing a bullish tune on Gold ever since I counted the terminal downward thrust from the burgundy X wave triangle complete in November 2014. As the weekly chart below shows, initially from that November 7 low, Gold jumped about 15% to the upside, but since topping on January 21, Gold has been in the process of largely retracing that initial surge. Today’s downside continuation appears to have scared a number of longs out of the market, but based on several technical factors, I will remain quite bullish on Gold as long as it does not take out $1132 to the downside.

Gold weekly 3-6-15

As shown on the daily chart below, the thrust from the burgundy X triangle (starting July 14, 2014) took the required form of a black ABC, and appears to have bottomed on November 7 as at least the 18-month cycle trough in Gold, and possibly the 4.5-year cycle trough, depending on how far back one starts the Hurst analysis. Once that low was “in”, Gold rallied and broke through a trendline extending from the October 2012 and July 2014 highs.

Gold daily 3-6-15

Upon examination of the intraday price action on the 360-minute chart below, upward movement from the November 6 low appears to carve out the proper ABC subdivisions within each leg of a  leading expanding diagonal. Also, wave 3 was longer than 1, 4 was longer than 2, and 5 was longer than 3. Additionally, wave 5 of the diagonal rallied strongly, but fell just short of tagging a line extending from the extremes of waves 1 and 3.  This is textbook expanding diagonal price action.  Then, from the January 21 high, downward movement is clearly choppy and overlapping. In my opinion, it counts best as a WXYXZ triple zigzag, nearly complete. Hurst cycle analysis is expecting a 20-week cycle trough to form here in early March.  Since leading diagonals are typically deeply retraced, recent downward movement still fits within this wave count nicely.

Gold 360m 3-6-15

One final note: Because the November low is very likely at least an 18-month cycle trough, Gold should generally move sideways and upward through about the mid-point in the next 18-month cycle. That means that Gold, Silver, and the miners are likely hold up nicely through August 2015, even if $1132 is taken out slightly to the downside.

Sid
http:ElliottWavePredictions.com
http://ElevenQuarterStocks.com

Technical Analysis of Silver Wheaton Corp. (ticker: SLW) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 Gold, Individual Stocks, Miners, Silver  Comments Off on Technical Analysis of Silver Wheaton Corp. (ticker: SLW) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Dec 052014
 

Technical Analysis of Silver Wheaton Corp. (ticker: SLW) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.

Silver Wheaton (SLW) is showing clear signs that it’ll be producing a 5-wave, non-overlapping Elliott Wave impulse to the upside from its November  11 low.  The 60-minute chart really tells the tale, as an almost unmistakeable wave 4 (pink) triangle is forming.  The charts speak for themselves.

Also significant is the fact that Sentient Trader software, which produces a full Hurst cycle analysis of any chart in just seconds, is labeling the early November low as an 18-month cycle trough.  This doesn’t mean that all miners have bottomed yet, but of the ones that haven’t, they are very likely to do so as SLW puts in its blue wave 2 (shown on the 60-minute chart) after 5-waves up are complete for blue wave 1.

Please join me for my weekly “Counts” webinar, where I spend a full 2.5 hours going over all of my Elliott Wave Counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stock markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst Cycle analysis is always considered.  A recording is made available to all subscribers afterwards, whether in attendance “live” or not.

SLW weekly 12-5-14

SLW daily 12-5-14

SLW 240m 12-5-14

SLW 60m 12-5-14

Once again, please join me for my weekly “Counts” webinar, where I spend a full 2.5 hours going over all of my Elliott Wave Counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stock markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds. Hurst Cycle analysis is always considered. A recording is made available to all subscribers afterwards, whether in attendance “live” or not.  For those looking for a “quick glance” service, featuring multi-timeframe screenshots of my projections for the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, Bonds (TLT), US$ (DX), and Euro (EUR/USD), see my EWP ScreenShots service.  EWP Screenshots subscribers receive access to screenshots on Sundays and again on Wednesdays.

Additionally, my subscription service associated with ElevenQuarterStocks.com is keenly interested in mining stocks at this time. All subscribers to that service receive access to a large number of individual stock charts labeled with my combination of Elliott and Hurst, as well as access to a recording of my most recent monthly Eleven-Quarter Stocks webinar, where I go over a large number of beaten down stocks, including many miners.

NEW!  I can now accept payment for annual subscriptions from money managers who want to utilize their accumulated broker “Soft Dollars“.  If you are a professional money manager with “Soft Dollars” available from your broker, and would like to use them to gain regular access to my work, contact me.  Thanks . .

Sid
http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com
http://ElevenQuarterStocks.com

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