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Updated Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 Gold, Individual Stocks, Miners, Silver  Comments Off on Updated Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Jul 162015
 

Updated Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.  Click on the charts to enlarge.

Back on July 2nd, I posted a workup on ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited.  Since then, ASA has continued lower, and yesterday reached a significant Fibonacci target of $8.94, where wave 5 blue equaled the net traveled by waves 1 through 3 blue times .618.  This is the most common Fibonacci target for the length of a 5th wave, so has ASA put in its low?  Here’s a new Elliott Wave interpretation of the wave structure since the January 2015 highs, suggesting that ASA is finishing its downward pattern this week.

ASA daily 7-16-15

The new developments in my main Elliott wave count and Hurst cycle analysis are:

1)  I’ve found a way to count five waves down from the January 2015 high in the form of an expanding ending diagonal.  Wave fives of expanding diagonals are quite aggressive, but constitute the final wave of the pattern.  Beware that fifth waves of expanding diagonals can keep going a lot further than logic would dictate, but with COT sentiment on Gold at near record levels of bearishness, we should see a bottom any day.  Also note that wave 5 of expanding diagonals must be longer than wave 3 was, and that condition was met at $9.25.

2)  Sentient Trader software is now placing a large 4.5-year cycle trough market at the December 2014 low, and not the June 2013 low.  This generally means that ASA should move higher, even if the movement is corrective, over the next several quarters at least.  This change also altered the placement of the smaller cycle troughs after December 2014.  An 80-day cycle trough is due essentially now (July 7 thru July 16), which should be followed by upward movement into the coming 80-day cycle crest, due in mid-August.  I think that upward movement into August will be wave 1 of the new upward trend.

As goes ASA, so goes Gold, Silver, precious metals, and the mining sector, although ASA usually leads.

Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterwards, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service shows multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable over the years.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA (Gold & Silver Stocks) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 Gold, Individual Stocks, Miners, Silver  Comments Off on Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA (Gold & Silver Stocks) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Jul 022015
 

Elliott Wave Analysis of ASA (Gold & Silver Stocks) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.  Click on the charts to enlarge.

From Yahoo Finance:  “ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited is ASA a self management investment trust. The firm invests in the public equity markets across the globe. It primarily invests in stocks of companies engaged in the exploration, mining or processing of gold, silver, platinum, diamonds, or other precious minerals. ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited was founded in 1958 and is based in San Mateo, California.”

ASA weekly 7-2-15

For decades, professional money managers have used ASA as a proxy for the entire precious metals sector.  From an Elliott Wave perspective, ASA (as well as a large number of precious metals stocks and ETF’s for that matter) appears to be in the very late stages of completing a large expanded flat structure that commenced in March 2008.  Expanded flats are ABC structures that subdivide 3-3-5.

Wave A’s of expanded flats must internally subdivide as a “three”, and the downward movement from March through October 2008 appears to easily meet that requirement.  Wave B’s of expanded flats are also “threes”, and most often retrace wave A by 123.6% to 138.2%.  In this case, primary wave B (burgundy) retraced wave A by factor of 1.236.  It also subdivided as an ABC structure.  Textbook.

Primary degree wave C (burgundy) of the expanded flat has been underway since December 2010, and needs to complete five intermediate (black) waves down.  Wave C’s of expanded flats internally subdivide as a “five”, and end beyond the extreme of wave A.  Downward movement since December 2010 in ASA easily counts as a five-wave non-overlapping impulse, and has already moved below its October 2008 low of $10.34, so the overall scope and shape of the expanded flat on a weekly chart (above) has appeared complete since December 2014.

ASA daily 7-2-15

However, as we zoom in on the most recent price action on a daily chart (above), despite the  appearance (at the time) of a completed black wave five on December 16, 2014, followed by five waves up into January 20, 2015, ASA made a new low yesterday.  So what’s going on?

In my opinion, the five waves up into January was wave C of an expanded flat for blue wave four.  Then, starting at the January 20 high, blue wave five in ASA is likely carving out a contracting ending diagonal.  Internal subdivisions since the end of blue wave 4 have been somewhat ambiguous, which fits well with the diagonal interpretation, as each leg of a diagonal is typically a corrective ABC.  Because Hurst cycle analysis is expecting that a 20-week cycle trough is a bit overdue, and based on the Fibonacci targets shown on the chart, it appears that ASA is bottoming in pink wave 3 of the contracting ending diagonal now, with pink wave 4 due next, likely moving price up into late August.  Then, if this interpretation is correct, there will be a final pink wave 5 to the downside, ending in about September/October 2015.  $8.94 is a solid target for the end of the diagonal later this year, as that is where blue wave five will be .618 times the net traveled of blue waves one through three.

In contracting ending diagonals, wave three must be shorter than wave one was, so if ASA is putting in its pink wave three bottom about now, price cannot move below $9.03.  Then, wave four (pink) cannot be longer than wave two pink was, followed by a wave five that is shorter than wave three was.  It should be noted that wave fives’s of ending diagonals can also truncate.  Each (pink) leg of the diagonal should subdivide internally as a green abc zigzag.

Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterwards, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service shows multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable over the years.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold (XK futures contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 Gold  Comments Off on Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold (XK futures contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Mar 062015
 

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold (XK futures contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts to enlarge.

As many who follow my work know, I’ve been singing a bullish tune on Gold ever since I counted the terminal downward thrust from the burgundy X wave triangle complete in November 2014. As the weekly chart below shows, initially from that November 7 low, Gold jumped about 15% to the upside, but since topping on January 21, Gold has been in the process of largely retracing that initial surge. Today’s downside continuation appears to have scared a number of longs out of the market, but based on several technical factors, I will remain quite bullish on Gold as long as it does not take out $1132 to the downside.

Gold weekly 3-6-15

As shown on the daily chart below, the thrust from the burgundy X triangle (starting July 14, 2014) took the required form of a black ABC, and appears to have bottomed on November 7 as at least the 18-month cycle trough in Gold, and possibly the 4.5-year cycle trough, depending on how far back one starts the Hurst analysis. Once that low was “in”, Gold rallied and broke through a trendline extending from the October 2012 and July 2014 highs.

Gold daily 3-6-15

Upon examination of the intraday price action on the 360-minute chart below, upward movement from the November 6 low appears to carve out the proper ABC subdivisions within each leg of a  leading expanding diagonal. Also, wave 3 was longer than 1, 4 was longer than 2, and 5 was longer than 3. Additionally, wave 5 of the diagonal rallied strongly, but fell just short of tagging a line extending from the extremes of waves 1 and 3.  This is textbook expanding diagonal price action.  Then, from the January 21 high, downward movement is clearly choppy and overlapping. In my opinion, it counts best as a WXYXZ triple zigzag, nearly complete. Hurst cycle analysis is expecting a 20-week cycle trough to form here in early March.  Since leading diagonals are typically deeply retraced, recent downward movement still fits within this wave count nicely.

Gold 360m 3-6-15

One final note: Because the November low is very likely at least an 18-month cycle trough, Gold should generally move sideways and upward through about the mid-point in the next 18-month cycle. That means that Gold, Silver, and the miners are likely hold up nicely through August 2015, even if $1132 is taken out slightly to the downside.

Sid
http:ElliottWavePredictions.com
http://ElevenQuarterStocks.com

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