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Oct 202011
 

SPX 90m 10 20 111 1024x576 Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P-500 Index (SPX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

Movement in equities and currencies is suggesting the possibility of a triangle formation, which means that downward movement may be quite limited at this time. 1191.48 is the SPX “line in the sand” between a running triangle and an expanded flat formation. If this is a triangle, and I think there’s a pretty good chance of it, price in the SPX is at about as low as its going to go now before the triangle completes, which would be followed by an upward terminal thrust. If price manages to move below 1191.48, an expanded flat is likely underway, and 5 waves down from the October 18 high would be required to finish the structure.

Sid

http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

Oct 182011
 

SPX 90m 10 18 112 1024x576 Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P-500 Index (SPX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

My long-time primary expectation that equities will “hold up” thru year end is still in-tact, and is supported by long term wave structures in the US Dollar and Oil that require several more weeks of corrective movement to complete.

Today, equities rallied late in the session because of an unsubstantiated rumour that Germany and France had agreed to throw in a couple trillion Euros to prop up European banks, and then immediately after the bell, Apple missed earnings expectations for the first time since 2004. The SPX whipsaw made a slight new high, but the Euro was only able to muster a .618 retracement of its most recent high. The rally in equities is doubly stretched now, so despite my continued expectation for a rally through year end, I think its time for a bearish wave B black before the last upside push ensues.

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

Sep 132011
 

DAX 60m 9 13 111 1024x576 Elliott Wave Analysis of the DAX, SPX, and Nasdaq by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

SPX 60m 9 13 111 1024x576 Elliott Wave Analysis of the DAX, SPX, and Nasdaq by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

NASDAQ 90m 9 13 111 1024x576 Elliott Wave Analysis of the DAX, SPX, and Nasdaq by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of the DAX, SPX, and Nasdaq by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

For those of you that follow this site regularly, you’ve been aware of the truncated 5th wave down in the US equities indices (from Aug 17 thru Aug 22) since the September 2 post, and those that attended (or donated to receive the recording of) Sunday’s “Counts” webinar were made aware that the DAX ended last week within just a few hourly bars of completing a large 5-wave downward impulse that started back on July 8.

Based on a number of technical factors, I think the global equities markets have all now entered into a large corrective (sideways) phase, as I had predicted they would here on this site over a month ago. The sideways range is likely to continue for several months more months, in my opinion. As I explained in the last weekend “Counts” webinar, the next phase of substantial downward movement isn’t likely to commence until January, and only after what I think will be an up September, a down October, and a November/December rally, but not to new highs. In my opinion, based on my longer term Elliott Wave count, this will be followed by a terrible 2012, when I expect the the European indices to move below their 2009 lows, with the US indices falling hard as well through October of next year.

Sid

Sep 082011
 

ES 180m 9 8 112 1024x576 Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P 500 e mini futures contract (ES) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P-500 e-mini futures contract (ES) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

Based on the Euro possibly being overdue for a relief rally, as well as what counts best (at least in the contract, which isn’t as reliable as the index) as 5 waves up in the S&P starting Tuesday, the alternate count depicted above must be considered, although my main count (shown in the Sept 2 post) is continuing to hold up well.

Please join me for my Sunday, 2-hour “Sid’s Current Elliott Wave Counts and Projections for the Major World Stock Markets, Currencies, and Commodities” webinar, or view a recording of it afterwards. Here’s how . .

Also, if you’d like to understand more about the how I integrate traditional technical indicators with Elliott Wave, consider accessing the 2-hour recorded educational webinar entitled “Early Detection of Trend Changes Using a Combination of Elliott Wave, MACD, and Japanese Candlesticks”. Here’s more about that . .

Thanks,
Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

Note added after sleeping a few hours: The Euro broke though my technical level overnight of 1.38 (during the London session . . overnight in the US), and is now, in my opinion, in wave 3 blue of wave 3 black, and is continuing to move downward impressively, as it should if that count is correct. This adds additional weight to my main SPX wave count (last presented in the Sept 2 post), and lessens the likelihood of the altenate view shown earlier in this post.  Invalidation (Euro) is now at the wave 2 blue high of 1.415.

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