All commentary is on the chart . .
Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P-500 Index (SPX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.
My long-time primary expectation that equities will “hold up” thru year end is still in-tact, and is supported by long term wave structures in the US Dollar and Oil that require several more weeks of corrective movement to complete.
Today, equities rallied late in the session because of an unsubstantiated rumour that Germany and France had agreed to throw in a couple trillion Euros to prop up European banks, and then immediately after the bell, Apple missed earnings expectations for the first time since 2004. The SPX whipsaw made a slight new high, but the Euro was only able to muster a .618 retracement of its most recent high. The rally in equities is doubly stretched now, so despite my continued expectation for a rally through year end, I think its time for a bearish wave B black before the last upside push ensues.
Quick Update on the S&P-500 emini (ES contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge . .
Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.
If the Euro starts rallying by tomorrow, I think the Elliott Wave count depicted in the chart above is correct. Typically, in an expanding ending diagonal, wave 5 terminates just before reaching a trend line extending from the extremes of waves 1 and 3. Also, in an expanding ending diagonal, wave 5 is longer than wave 3, wave 3 is longer than wave 1, and wave 4 is longer than wave 2. Finally, each wave is a zigzag or zigzag combination. All those rules have been met.
If the Euro continues aggressively downward, the alternate count shown on the chart is preferred, with wave 3 blue already underway after an anemic wave 2 blue. If wave 3 blue is underway, equities will have a hard time doing anything but go down . .