You are here: Home » Archives for Nasdaq

Combined Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle Analysis of the Nasdaq (NQ Futures Contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 Nasdaq, NQ Futures Contract, QQQ  Comments Off on Combined Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle Analysis of the Nasdaq (NQ Futures Contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Mar 112016
 

Combined Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle Analysis of the Nasdaq (NQ Futures Contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.

The NQ futures contract has been presenting very clear internal wave structures and Hurst cycle designations for past year and a half, and should be considered a proxy for wave counts and Hurst Cycle analysis in other US stock market indices, in my opinion.

NQ daily 3-11-16

Starting at the October 16, 2014 low, the upward movement into the July 20, 2015 high carved out a clear ending contracting diagonal.  I’m labeling that July 20 high as the end of blue (minor degree) wave 3 within black (intermediate) wave C of a burgundy (primary) wave Y within an upward double zigzag that started all the way back in at the October 2002 low.  Then, the strong downward move from July 20 into the August 24, 2015 low was in three waves, so I’ve labeled that low as the end of blue wave 4.  That was followed by an upward 5-wave impulse into the December 2, 2015 top.  I’ve labeled that top as the end of teal (cycle degree) wave B.

Then, from the December 2, 2015 all time high in the NQ, price moved down in a clear 5-wave impulse into the February 11 low.  Upward movement from that February 11 low started quite aggressively but appears to have lost momentum over the past week.  Importantly, the upward movement from the Feb 11 low appears to be forming a corrective, 3-wave (blue) ABC structure.

As for a Hurst Cycle analysis, we use an unaltered Sentient Trader nominal trough-based model on the continuous NQ contract starting at the March 2000 mania top.  This analysis has remained consistent for many months.  It labels the October 16, 2014 low is the last 18-month cycle trough, the August 24, 2015 low as the last 40-week cycle trough, and the February 11, 2016 low as a 20-week cycle trough.  Moving forward, and this is very important, there is an 18-month cycle trough still in front of us, due in mid-June of this year.  Is the stock market going to continue to climb as that 18-month cycle trough draws nearer and nearer.  Likely not.

So we currently have 5-waves down into from Dec 2 through Feb 11 followed by an ABC partial retracement, which is losing upward momentum with wave C (blue) currently shorter than wave A was.  Hmmm . .

Wave 2’s most commonly retrace between 50 and 61.8% of wave 1’s.  Also, price appears to have moved up into an 80-day cycle topping date window.  The resulting target zone for a top for wave 2 is shown on the chart by the gray oval.  The Sentient Trader “composite line” (CL) is suggesting that the NQ will top early in that window, which makes sense, as the longer cycles will theoretically provide gradually increasing downward pressure through mid-June.

Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterward, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service provides updated multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepredictions.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 ES futures contract, Nasdaq, QQQ, S&P 500  Comments Off on Elliott Wave Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Nov 052015
 

Elliott Wave Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.  Click on the charts to enlarge.

There are several ways to track the Nasdaq.  Today I’m showing the Powershares QQQ Trust, which generally tracks with the Nasdaq 100 Index.  First, let’s take a look at a long-term (monthly) chart:

QQQ monthly 11-5-15

The most important aspects shown in this chart are:

  1. The initial upward movement from the October 2002 low counts best as corrective.  I believe it is a double zigzag, and have labeled it primary (burgundy) wave W.
  2. The subsequent drop into late 2008 falls short of retracing 90% of the up move from October 2002.  I’ve therefore labeled the November 2008 low as burgundy wave X.  This labeling suggests that the upward movement from the November 2008 low is going to be a black ABC zigzag.
  3. The monthly RSI has already topped and has fallen out of overbought territory.

QQQ weekly 11-5-15

As we look in at the weekly chart, starting at the December 2011 end of the black B triangle, the upward movement associated with black wave C has certainly displayed the characteristics of a thrust from a triangle, moving relentlessly to the upside for almost 4 years now.  Because the up-thrust from Dec 2011 is projected to be a C wave, it should subdivide into 5 (blue) waves.  I’ve decided to keep the blue 3 label at the September 2014 high because it has a better near Fibonacci relationship (2.618) with the length of blue wave 1 there.  Then, I’ve labeling the structure from Sept 2014 through August 2015 as a double zigzag for blue wave 4, with an unusually stretched X wave in the middle of it.   There are other interpretations.  For instance, blue wave 4 may still be underway as an expanding triangle.

Finally, the daily chart:

QQQ daily 11-5-15

Now that the Q’s has taken out the July high, how high will it go?  The next large degree target is at 117.49, where primary (burgundy) wave Y will equal burgundy wave W times 2.618.  Based on my independent interpretations of the Dow, S&P, and Russell, the roadmap shown on the chart seems most likely.  Down in November for a pink wave 4, and up in December for a pink wave 5, ending about year-end.  While the Nasdaq is moving down in November for its pink wave 4, I think most other indices will produce a relatively modest wave 1 to the downside. And then, while the Nasdaq is making its final pink wave 5 high toward year-end, the other indices with be partially (and probably deeply) retracing their November waves 1’s with December wave 2’s.

Update on the S&P-500:  In my last free SPX post (Oct 30), I suggested that a top may be “in” at the Oct 30 high.  While all subdivisions could be counted complete on that date, price worked its way into new highs on Monday.  Monday night, I emailed the following chart to subscribers, with the following message:

“EWP ScreenShots subscriber update:

The short-term wave structures on the ES futures contract (S&P-500) appear to be a bit more clear that on the S&P cash index itself.  The choppy, volatile, but progressive upward movement since October 27 appears to be carving out an ending expanding diagonal.  The final 5th wave (orange) of that diagonal appears to be incomplete.
If that interpretation is correct, we should see one last rally to a minimum of 2103.75 in the ES.  The only Fibonacci target left before 2116.75 invalidation is at 2108.0, where green wave 5 will equal the net traveled of green waves 1 through 3 times .618.
Interestingly, the wave structure on the SPX cash index cannot be counted the same way.  In that SPX, the next strong fib target is at 2120.73, where blue wave C will equal blue wave A times 1.618, if blue A is placed at the Sept 17 peak.  Also, green 5 will equal green waves 1 through 3 at 2118.12.  Black 2 invalidation is at 2132.82.
Wave counts on the cash index take precedent over wave counts on the underlying futures contract.  The SPX cash index is currently riding about 8.5 points above the underlying (and highly leveraged) ES futures contract.”
The following chart was attached:

ES 90m 11-3-15

So far, Monday’s interpretation (above), as emailed to all EWP “Counts” Webinar  and EWP ScreenShots subscribers has developed as planned, as the top tick on the ES (as of this writing) was 2110.25 on Tuesday, and 2116.48 on that same day in the S&P-500 cash index (SPX).

ES 30m 11-5-15

Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterward, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service provides updated multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable over the years.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepredictions.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of the Nasdaq Combined Composite Index (COMPQ) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 Nasdaq  Comments Off on Elliott Wave Analysis of the Nasdaq Combined Composite Index (COMPQ) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Jan 232013
 

COMPQ daily 1-23-13

COMPQ 180m 1-23-13

Elliott Wave Analysis of the Nasdaq Combined Composite Index (COMPQ) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

As bullish as the other U.S. stock indices seem at the moment, the top in the Nasdaq back on September 21 is still holding. That peak, the highest achieved in the Nasdaq since November 2000, (but still having only retraced about half of the 2000-2002 crash), ended what I’m counting as a terminal black WXYXZ triple zigzag, and was followed by a sizeable 5-wave impulse down through the November 16 low. Now, a corrective blue ABC zigzag for black wave 2 is likely complete, especially now that Apple is tanking, down 10% after-hours because of yet another earnings miss.

The COMPQ index gapped up to start the day, forming a textbook wave 5 “throwover” to complete a contracting ending diagonal for pink wave 5. With a big down day in Apple a virtual certainty for tommorow, the opening up-gap today in the NASDAQ was likely an exhaustion gap. If the above wave count is correct, wave 3 black to the downside has begun, and today’s high of 3161.06 will hold.

Sid
http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com

Addtion to this post added January 26:  I’m lowering the confidence rating to 3.  Both downward and upward movement since the 3161.06 high appears to be corrective, at least in the futures contract (NQ).   I’ll be looking for the picture to clear up one way or the other early in trading next week.  One aspect that concerns me is how all of the U.S. stock indices have rallied or “held-up” while APPL has crashed 37+ percent.  This is very odd, if not downright fishy . .

Content Protected Using Blog Protector By: PcDrome. & GeekyCube.
ewplogotransorangews

We should stay in touch!

Register to automatically receive email notification of important new market analysis from Sid.  Register now and we'll send you FREE access to Sid's newest educational video: "Introduction to How I Combine Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis".

You have Successfully Subscribed!