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Elliott Wave Analysis of the DAX, SPX, and Nasdaq by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

DAX, EUR/USD, S&P 500 Comments Off

Sep 132011

Elliott Wave Analysis of the DAX, SPX, and Nasdaq by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

For those of you that follow this site regularly, you’ve been aware of the truncated 5th wave down in the US equities indices (from Aug 17 thru Aug 22) since the September 2 post, and those that attended (or donated to receive the recording of) Sunday’s “Counts” webinar were made aware that the DAX ended last week within just a few hourly bars of completing a large 5-wave downward impulse that started back on July 8.

Based on a number of technical factors, I think the global equities markets have all now entered into a large corrective (sideways) phase, as I had predicted they would here on this site over a month ago. The sideways range is likely to continue for several months more months, in my opinion. As I explained in the last weekend “Counts” webinar, the next phase of substantial downward movement isn’t likely to commence until January, and only after what I think will be an up September, a down October, and a November/December rally, but not to new highs. In my opinion, based on my longer term Elliott Wave count, this will be followed by a terrible 2012, when I expect the the European indices to move below their 2009 lows, with the US indices falling hard as well through October of next year.

Sid

Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P-500 e-mini futures contract (ES) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

S&P 500 Comments Off

Sep 082011

Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P-500 e-mini futures contract (ES) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

Based on the Euro possibly being overdue for a relief rally, as well as what counts best (at least in the contract, which isn’t as reliable as the index) as 5 waves up in the S&P starting Tuesday, the alternate count depicted above must be considered, although my main count (shown in the Sept 2 post) is continuing to hold up well.

Please join me for my Sunday, 2-hour “Sid’s Current Elliott Wave Counts and Projections for the Major World Stock Markets, Currencies, and Commodities” webinar, or view a recording of it afterwards. Here’s how . .

Also, if you’d like to understand more about the how I integrate traditional technical indicators with Elliott Wave, consider accessing the 2-hour recorded educational webinar entitled “Early Detection of Trend Changes Using a Combination of Elliott Wave, MACD, and Japanese Candlesticks”. Here’s more about that . .

Thanks,
Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

Note added after sleeping a few hours: The Euro broke though my technical level overnight of 1.38 (during the London session . . overnight in the US), and is now, in my opinion, in wave 3 blue of wave 3 black, and is continuing to move downward impressively, as it should if that count is correct. This adds additional weight to my main SPX wave count (last presented in the Sept 2 post), and lessens the likelihood of the altenate view shown earlier in this post. Invalidation (Euro) is now at the wave 2 blue high of 1.415.

Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

EUR/USD Comments Off

Sep 082011

Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

If the Euro moves below 1.37951, this will be the final confirmation in my opinion that Wave 3 blue within wave 3 black is underway. Within wave 1 blue, the fibonacci relationship where wave 5 pink was .618 times the net traveled by waves 1 through 3 pink lends confidence to this count. If the Euro is carving out an expanded flat for wave 2 blue, and the chances of that have diminished considerably since wave B has now moved well past 1.3821 X A, the max it can go is 1.37951, which is 2X wave A.

This is after all, what gives every appearance of being a wave 3 at intermediate degree, so its unlikely to pause much for additional passengers to climb aboard.

Please join me for my regular live Sunday webinar, where I’ll explain my long, intermediate, and short-term main and alternate wave counts for the major world stock markets, currencies, and commodities. Here’s how to register.

Thanks,
Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

EUR/USD Comments Off

Sep 062011

Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on each chart twice to enlarge.

Here are my updated and slightly revised long, intermediate, and short-term Elliott Wave counts for the EUR/USD currency pair. The expectation moving forward is very similar to my truncation count from before. These new main counts depict that an intermediate degree bearish wave 3 commenced on August 29. After waves 3, 4, and 5 black are finished, the Euro should be below 1.233.

Short term, wave 2 blue (within wave 3 black) may have finished very quickly, but I think its more likely to still be underway as an expanded or running flat, and recover some ground during the news releases over the next couple of days. If the Euro continues aggressively downward, the maximum depth if the Euro is still in wave b of an expanded flat for wave 2 blue is 1.3800. Movement below 1.38 will therefore be final confirmation that wave 3 blue within wave 3 black is underway.

I also have several long-term alternate counts, which I’ll show in my weekend webinar on Sunday, including one that counts the down move in the Euro from July through October of 2008 as a zigzag rather than an impulse, and therefore, since the high in July 2008, we may have seen a W-X-Y-X, and are now in wave Z of a triple zigzag. This would mean that the Z-wave would not be required to move below anything in particular, but must be at least a large zigzag, most likely commensurate with the previous W and Y waves within that alternate count.

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

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