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Oct 032011
 

EURUSD 90m 10 3 112 1024x576 Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

If the Euro starts rallying by tomorrow, I think the Elliott Wave count depicted in the chart above is correct. Typically, in an expanding ending diagonal, wave 5 terminates just before reaching a trend line extending from the extremes of waves 1 and 3. Also, in an expanding ending diagonal, wave 5 is longer than wave 3, wave 3 is longer than wave 1, and wave 4 is longer than wave 2. Finally, each wave is a zigzag or zigzag combination. All those rules have been met.

If the Euro continues aggressively downward, the alternate count shown on the chart is preferred, with wave 3 blue already underway after an anemic wave 2 blue. If wave 3 blue is underway, equities will have a hard time doing anything but go down . .

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

Sep 262011
 

EURUSD 120m 9 26 116 1024x576 Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

We may have seen the end of wave 1 blue today, although there is a slightly lower fibonacci target at 1.334, if wave 5 green within wave 5 pink reaches .382 times the net distance traveled by waves 1 through 3 green. Downward momentum is definitely waning, as shown by the double divergence in the MACD. Also, if wave 5 pink ended at 1.33627, it is virtually equal in length to wave 1 pink, a highly typical relationship.

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

Note added Monday mid-morning (Oct 3): If the Euro moves below 1.3235, an expanded flat for wave 2 blue is unlikely, and wave 2 blue therefore may have ended on Thursday (Sept 29) after a very short, choppy, and anemic rally to 1.368. This would mean that wave 3 blue to the downside is already underway. There is one other possibility that downward movement in Euro is about to subside (for a bit) though, which calls for wave 5 pink to just now be completing as an expanding ending diagonal. This would have wave 1 blue ending on Monday or Tuesday, Oct 3 or 4. A slight bit more downward movement below 1.3235 is allowable in that scenario, after which, a wave 2 blue correction would commence, theoretically taking the Euro back into the upper 1.3′s.

Sep 242011
 

Oil weekly 9 24 11 1024x576 Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude Oil (QM futures contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude Oil (QM futures contract) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the chart twice to enlarge.

Here’s a sneak peek at my current main Elliott Wave count for Crude Oil (QM), depicted on a weekly chart.

Please join me for my weekly 2-3 hour LIVE Sunday morning webinar. Covered topics include my long, intermediate, and short term Elliott Wave counts and price targets for the major world stock markets, commodities, and currencies, as well as tips on how to improve your own Elliott Wave technical analysis. If you enroll, but can’t attend LIVE, you’ll automatically receive a recording of the webinar. Here’s more info, including how to enroll.

Best Regards,
Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

P.S . . I was on vacation last weekend, but in the last “Counts” webinar (on September 11, 2011), I showed a bearish 1-2-1-2 setup in Silver, and stated that I was definitely bearish the XY contract. Silver was at $41.52 at the time. It closed Friday (9-23) at $31.14, down 25% in two weeks. Yay!

Sep 172011
 

DJIA 45m 9 17 11 1024x576 Elliott Wave Analysis of the DJIA and Euro by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

EURUSD 180m 9 17 112 1024x576 Elliott Wave Analysis of the DJIA and Euro by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of the DJIA and Euro by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

I think this next week is a bit of a crap shoot. We are due a pink wave “b” in the DJIA and SPX, but it could be short & quick (if blue Y equals blue W in duration and length), or a more normal .382-.618 fib zone retracement. Both are depicted on the attached DJIA chart. I continue to like the time frame laid out in last weekend’s webinar, and believe that this wave B burgundy correction in the Industrials (& SPX) will likely be with us all the way to year end, and is highly likely to end above the range carved out so far since August 9.

As for the EUR/USD currency pair, if it invalidates a 5-wave downward impulse by moving above 1.3973 (before moving below 1.34979), the coordinated manipulative effort by the Central Banks worked for now, and the big move down in the Euro from Aug 29 is most likely just another X wave in an extended triple-zigzag wave 2 black, although there are other more bullish scenarios, but I find those less likely at this juncture.

Due to some business matters that came up last night, I won’t be able to spend all day Saturday counting waves and preparing main and alternate counts using multiple timeframes on all of the two dozen items covered in the LIVE Sunday webinars, so I’m offering this post as a cheap replacement, and will be back in the saddle for the Sunday, Sept 25 webinar. Have a great week!

P.S. This might be a good week to check out my 2-hour recorded educational webinar: “Early Detection of Trend Changes Using a Combination of Elliott Wave, MACD, and Japanese Candlesticks”. In that movie, I go over a number of techniques, including exactly how to synchronize your charts to the “gear” the market is currently in. This technique helps you hone in to the chart timeframe most likely to offer a reliable trend change signal based on MACD divergence.

Sid
http://ElliottWavePredictions.com

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