Elliott Wave Analysis – EUR/USD Euro EURUSD from Sid at ElliottWavePredictions.com. Topics: 1) The Euro is continuing to move up as expected, 2) How to determine the target zone for the wave 4 black to end, 3) How the MACD can be used to confirm that the upward movement is finished, and 4) how the eventual downside target zone will be determined.
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I’ve made the script from the above video available below, so those of you who prefer a language other than English may use a translation program to follow along:
Hi, this is Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. Today, I’ve prepared several timeframe views of the Nasdaq Index, symbol $COMPQ. In previous posts, I’ve shown a very bullish long term Elliott Wave count, but today, I’d like to present my alternate count, which may be quickly morphing into my primary count, because of several key aspects, which I’ll be presenting in this video. Before we start, be sure to change your YouTube viewer setting to 720P (at the lower right of the viewer frame).
First, lets switch to the monthly candles. If you’ve been following my posts, you know the importance of this wave starting in March 2000 descending in 5 waves. This was followed by a 3-wave A, and a 3-wave B (primary/burgundy), setting up the expectation of a 5 wave impulse to the upside, terminating beyond the extreme high of October 2007. This would complete the corrective FLAT structure, in Elliott Wave terms.
It is this Primary (burgundy) wave C to the upside that I’d like to break down further in this video. Now switching to weekly candles, I’m expecting 5 waves up from this March 09 low. So far we’ve seen 5 waves up to complete Intermediate wave 1 (black), and 3 waves down for wave 2 black, followed by 5 waves up for what I have labeled here as wave 3 black. This is where this count differs from my earlier posts. There are two aspects accompanying the placement of the wave 3 black label here that I think are important.
First, the MACD, which generally registers its highest point during an impulse at the extreme of wave 3, has registered a new high on the weekly chart, and has subsequently turned downward. Secondly, thanks to the trusty measuring tool that included with the Genesis Trade Navigator charting platform I use, we can see that wave 1 black was 126,938 ticks in length, and wave 1 black, if it ended here, measured 77,986 ticks, which means that wave 3 black is .614 the length of wave 1 black. This is amazingly close to the most important Fibonacci relationship, .618, the “golden mean”.
If wave 3 black did end here, we would expect wave 4 black to not travel into the price territory of wave 1 black, and then we would expect wave 5 black to move beyond the extreme of October 2007 to complete the FLAT. Additionally, wave 5 black would have to be shorter than wave 3 black, because wave 3 cannot be the shortest of waves 1, 3, or 5 in an impulse. So, if this count is correct, after wave 4 completes, we’ll be able to publish an upside maximum for wave 5 black, which would complete, in all likelihood, Cycle (teal) wave B.
Now moving to daily candles, additional fuel for placing the wave 3 black here is that pink (Minute) wave 3 within wave 3 black produced the highest MACD reading on this daily chart, and also, wave 2 orange (Subminuette) within wave 5 green (Minuette), within wave 5 pink has now been breached to the downside.
Also, switching to a 90 minute chart of the Nasdaq futures contract NQ, this initial down wave counts best, I believe, as a 5 wave impulse, and the subsequent upward movement breaks down nicely into a “3″ (green W, X, & Y). You might want to pause the video here to examine the 5 confirmations of a trend change notated around the chart.
So, this count is calling for almost immediate downward movement to below the extreme of wave a pink at a minimum, but possibly moving as low as the extreme of wave 1 black, which on the e-mini, is 2053. As this chart shows, since the invalidation points are very close by, this is a good example of a low risk, high reward shorting setup. Remember, we are nearing March Expiration, so I would think that playing the June expiration contract would be the preferred choice here.
A quick note, I generally trade the Nasdaq E-mini and the EUR/USD currency pair. If you would like to see my Elliott Wave take on other instruments, send me an email request. I’ll add analysis on additional items if enough requests come in.
My Disclaimer: All my posts are strictly for educational purposes, and are not intended as recommendations for trades and/or investments. This is Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com. See ya soon . .