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Aug 122015
 

The video clip below contains highlights from my Weekly “Counts” webinar from three days ago (August 9, 2015).  Included are portions of my analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial average, GDX, and the US Dollar Index.  ALL of the calls in this video were contrarian against the so-called “consensus trades”, like long dollar, and short gold and the miners.  Maybe that’s why they worked so well.  (-:

Please join me for my Weekly “Counts” Webinar, where I go over all of my Elliott Wave counts and associated Fibonacci price targets for many of the world’s major stocks markets, commodities, currencies, and bonds.  Hurst cycle analysis is considered on almost all items.  A link to the recording of the webinar is emailed to all “Counts” webinar subscribers immediately afterwards, whether they were able to attend “live” or not.  Alternatively, my EWP ScreenShots service provides updated multi-timeframe analysis of the SPX, DAX, Gold, Oil, TLT, US$ (DX), & EUR/USD currency pair twice each week.  All “Counts” webinar subscribers receive EWP ScreenShots as a free bonus.  Many traders and investors have found my analysis quite profitable over the years.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 EUR/USD  Comments Off on Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
May 192015
 

Elliott Wave Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.  Click on the charts to enlarge.

There appears to be quite a debate going on these days about whether the Euro is finished going down or not.  In my opinion, a combination of Elliott Wave and Hurst cycle analysis suggests that the March low is, in fact, a major bottom in the Euro.  Here’s why . .

EURUSD weekly 5-19-15

As shown in the weekly chart above, the triangle that started in the EUR/USD currency pair back in October of 2008 lasted over five years, finally ending in May 2014.  Triangles are followed by terminal thrusts.  So far the downward thrust has carved out three waves down.  Many are still expecting a 5th wave, but I don’t think that’s going to happen for several reasons:

  • The initial drop from the July 2008 all-time high through October 2008 was a “three” (in the form of a zigzag).   This is why I’ve labeled the October 2008 low as a primary (burgundy) degree wave W.  If that interpretation is correct, the multi-year triangle that followed was an X-wave triangle, and the downward terminal thrust out of that triangle was a burgundy wave Y.  Y waves are “threes”, not “fives”.
  • Utilizing R. N. Elliott’s triangle measurement technique, the measured target for the end of the thrust from the multi-year triangle in the Euro was 1.04470.  ( I was able to finalize that target back in July 2014, when the Euro broke down out of the blue trend channel).  In March of this year, the Euro started a substantial reversal at just 15 pips shy of that target.  The thrust target has essentially already been reached.
  • Hurst cycle analysis is considering the March low a 4.5-year cycle trough.  This suggests that a multi-year uptrend in the Euro has already commenced.
  • Thrusts from triangles are generally relentless, typically racing within a narrow channel, or in parabolic fashion until abruptly ending.   The 1005 pip bounce since the March 13 low in the Euro simply does not fit well within an expectation for a downside thrust continuation from the May 2014 top.

EURUSD daily 5-19-15

Moving on to the daily chart (above), examination of the internal wave structure within Burgundy wave Y shows the completed black ABC zigzag structure.  Within both black wave A and black C, there was blue 3-5 MACD divergence.  Also, the final capitulation into the March 13 low was a terminal thrust from a blue wave 4 triangle.  Importantly, wave C black was slightly shorter than 1.382 times the length of wave A black, once again suggesting that the entire drop from May 8 2014 through March 13 2015 was an ABC, and not a 123.  (Wave 3’s are typically 1.618 times the length of wave 1’s, or longer).

EURUSD 240m 5-19-15

Finally, upon examination of the 240-minute chart (above) , if a major trend change has occurred, we would expect a 5-wave structure to the upside to support the idea.  So far, we’ve seen a blue wave 1 in the form of a contracting leading diagonal followed a characteristically deep blue wave 2.  Then, wave 3 blue ended within just 8 pips of being 1.618 times the length of wave 1, a very typical relationship of wave 3 to wave 1.  Now, it appears that blue wave 4 is underway, if not already finished.  Wave 4’s most often retrace wave 3’s by a Fibonacci .382 relationship, so a good target for the end of blue wave 4 is 1.11052, which is only 53 pips above blue 4 invalidation at 1.10519.  Wave 4 appears so far to have completed a pink ABC corrective structure to the downside, with wave C only slightly longer than wave A was.  It is also possible that blue wave 4 will carve out a longer lasting triangle, as long as the pair stays above blue 4 invalidation (1.10519).

If the Euro continues lower than blue 4 invalidation, the April low of 1.05203 would then become invalidation, as my alternate count would become the main.  That alternate would expect that a nested bullish 1-2-1-2 is underway starting from the March low.

Sid Norris
http://elliottwavepre.wpengine.com

Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com

 US Dollar Index  Comments Off on Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com
Jan 052015
 

Elliott Wave & Hurst Cycle Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DX) by Sid from ElliottWavePredictions.com.  Click on the charts twice to enlarge.

US$ DX monthly 1-5-15

US$ DX weekly 1-5-15

US$ DX daily 1-5-15

Using a combination of Elliott Wave and Hurst Cycle analysis sometimes provides expectations that are not widely accepted.  For instance, if my interpretation of the narrowing sideways chop in the US Dollar Index from January 2012 through July 2014 is correct as an Elliott Wave triangle, the strong, relentless upshot in the US Dollar over the past 6 months is a terminal thrust.  Thrusts from triangles are almost always destined to be completely retraced.  To say that this view is not widely held at this juncture is an understatement!  The financial media has propped up one talking head after another for months on end now, almost all jawboning about how to best position portfolios for a relentlessly strengthening dollar.  The attached charts show that based on my unique form of technical analysis (combining Elliott Wave with Hurst cycle analysis), I cannot agree with that expectation, especially now that the thrust from the triangle is nearing several important targets.

Elliott Wave includes a method for estimating how long the thrust from a triangle will be.   I’ve shown that methodology on the attached weekly chart.  Notice that the triangle boundary line connecting pink waves A and C of the triangle is extended backward, as is the line connecting waves B and C (pink) of the triangle.  Then, at the start of wave A (pink) of the triangle, I’ve measured the distance between those two lines as 1284 ticks (shown in red on the chart).  1284 ticks is the expected distance that the thrust from the triangle will travel.  (This technique has produced amazingly accurate results many, many times, although it is not considered an Elliott Wave rule.)   I made a copy of the 1284-tick measuring tool, and placed it at the end of the triangle., starting at the blue B (pink e), end-of-triangle low.  This leaves a thrust target in the US Dollar Index of about 92.58 (shown best on the attached daily chart).

There are two additional price targets very near the 92.58 thrust target.  One is at 92.63, the extreme of wave 4 at one lesser degree.  (In this case, the November 2005 high, as shown on the monthly chart).  Also, within the thrust from the triangle (starting July 1, 2014), there are 5 clear internal waves (1 through 5 pink).  Many times, wave 5 within a thrust from a triangle is extended, and extended 5th waves are most often equal to the net traveled by waves 1 though 3.  Pink wave 5 equaled the net traveled by pink waves 1 though 3 at 91.48.  That target was reached today.

Additional evidence of an imminent top in the U.S. Dollar is provided by Hurst cycle analysis via Sentient Trader software.  Utilizing an analysis commencing at the November 2005 high, the current 21.1-week cycle was due to crest (top out) between Nov 24 and Dec 30.  We are just slightly past that expected topping window now.  Also, today’s price action featured an  opening gap higher, followed by a strong upward continuation, but then an equally strong retracement back to the opening level.  On the daily chart, this created a long-wick doji candle.  Hmmm . .

Sid Norris
ElliottWavePredictions.com
ElevenQuarterStocks.com

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